Monday, February 09, 2009

Weekly Report on ES - Feb 09th to 13th '09

Again, markets are very much correlated and we'll here only emphacize on specific prices and possible pattern differences.

ES 60mins: Somewhat overbought ahead of key resistance at 875. This is typical of stall level (867) after a good run end of last week. We'll therefore watch for a first Fib retracement level. One should theoretically be too concerned if there weren't a number of clouds in the sky of higher time frames...

ES Daily: The uncertainty unraveled last week is still around, so we may have some more congestion until a Fib pattern comes out clearly. We remain cautiously bullish even if trading range lows can always be tested again (unlikely though).

ES Weekly: Here again, we have to be particularly careful as Entropy is stalling, Swing is turning south again and MTFS is decidedly quite bearish still. Only that yellow bar gives us a glimpse of hope. Having said that, no gloom and doom here... Let's just watch how we break our trading range at daily level first. All we can say is that the trading environment on longer time frames should remain messy for a while.

( posted 8:30 AM UK )

Weekly Report on ER - Feb 09th to 13th '09

Due to an exclusitivity agreement, there will no longer be forex reports on this blog, so we'll jump in straight away with ER (RUT).

I advised to go for an aggressive long limit order to prepare for a nice up move or go market. I gave an indication of a pivot point (438) so i assume everybody got it more or less at the right time.

Let's now have a look at the week ahead:

ER 60mins: while being understandbly stopped at MM pivot line + Fib Exp target, there is still substantial buying pressure in overbought territory so in absence of major news, one should only see moderate profit taking.

ER Daily: The picture is not so rosy here and it appears that we'll have to wait for Fib Exp 1 level (low to mid 480ss) to be reached to relax a bit. We can have some messy congestion hanging on for a while even if lows will probably be soon confirmed as passed as time goes by.
Til then, caution is required.

ER Weekly: While we still follow our favoured "cup & handle" type of scenario we have to acknowledge that last week's bar only turned yellow from red, and both MTFS and Entropy do not look too good yet. At the moment, we just have to watch that lows do hold on until buyer start coming back to the party. Test levels would then be in the [500-520] range.

( posted 8:05 AM UK )