Saturday, October 13, 2007

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 15th '07

Dominant TF: Daily and low time frames (15mins)
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: Watch behaviour on stall level.

60mins: Up, but resistance at 2188 to be watched closely. Follow lower time frames for guidance.

One should not forget Thursday's incident too quickly, as it may have been costly to some. There could well be more turbulences ahead.
For the time being, NDX will try and hit 2188 again, and we'll have to be very careful as it can turn into a head & shoulder, a double top, or obviously break on the up side.
Entropy is recovering a bit, but lower time frames (not displayed here) are far more hesitant. We are close to a stall level at 2180, applicable to this sudden recovery.

Daily: Up until...
AdStoK is now showing more signs of weakness and significance level is still the highest of all 3 on this chart.
There is so much accumulated energy that one cannot imagine a serious retracement right now, but one could have a pause with some congestion and profit taking. This high volatility environment can obviously accelerate movements in either direction. For the time being, i would recommend keeping an eye on the formation of a clearer pattern (H&S, DT, or breakout) in intraday time frames.

Weekly: Mildly UP until resistance is found
AdStoK lines have now crossed over so RUT may be a little ahead of itself, but significance level is so low at this time frame (divergence) that we should not jump to conclusions. It is almost unthinkable to have a retracement with an rising Entropy.