Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Market Snapshot ER2 (RUT) for Apr 23rd '08

cf. SPY post below for guidance

Market Snapshot for NDX - Apr 23rd 2008

cf. SPY post below for guidance

Market Outlook SPY for Apr 23rd '08

Dominant TF: 60mins followed by the weekly chart.
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Cycles: good fit, but unreliable still
Market Direction (daily): congestion to upper bias
Position (60mins): flat

It was indeed probably a safe thing to take profits (on the 60mins chart), as SPY retraced a bit on MM level, exactly like NDX (cf. post 2 days ago). All in all charts are not too difficult to read at the moment.

60mins: hesitation at resistance level
SPY penetrated the MM resistance level then took a breather to now test it as support. Although MTFS looks slightly negative, we shall favour a positive bias at least in the very short term. The 30mins chart (not shown here) is also pointing higher.
We however have no indication of a range breakout yet.

Daily: congestion to upper bias
Mild upper bias, but certainly not the best looking MTFS pattern ("low-rev 2nd gear"). Like on the 60mins chart, we have no indication of a range breakout yet, so despite the current upper bias, we'll keep an eye on SPY's behaviour on range highs.

Weekly: recovery still stopped on Fib PR1
Entropy is improving indicating more and more clearly that the worst is probably behind us. Yet we have to see how SPY behaves on PR1 Fib level (38.2%). Significance level is high on the MTFS, indicating we're still in 'soft landing' mode rather than in recovery mode, hence SPY should stay in the 130s for some time still. Should PR1 break, SPY will stop one Fib level up, but since the MTFS pattern has not completed in oversold mode, we may see some volatility ahead.