Wednesday, January 23, 2008

Market Snapshot for NDX - Jan 23rd 2008

cf. latest RUT Snapshot

Market Snapshot for SPY - Jan 23rd 2008

cf. RUT Snapshot

Market Outlook RUT for Jan 23rd '08

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Cycles: unreliable (too trendy)
Market Direction: congestion at best, possibly lower still
Position: short or flat

The rate cut stopped the fall on MM stall level as mentioned in previous post.

60mins: unconvincing attempt to recover
RUT may have found a good support level at 655, but there is certainly no indication of a strong recovery. RUT may hover around current levels, or try going lower again.

Daily: lower
MTFS is still not looking great. OK, we may have a good looking candle after the rate cut, but probably not good enough... 655 remains the stall level and while the fall may be stopped for a while, 625 remains a possible target.

Weekly: congestion to lower
MTFS and Entropy point downward. The 655 stall level on daily chart is Fib level here, so all the more reason to hold, yet we now at least need to see the MTFS white reverse up in oversold territory to anticipate the end of the current correction. Entropy should also bottom up at the same time.