Tuesday, February 05, 2008

Market Snapshot for NDX Feb 5th '08

cf RUT post below

Market Snapshot SPY - Feb 5th '08

cf. RUT below

Market Outlook RUT for Feb 5th '08

Dominant TF: 60mins taking over, Daily declining
Swings: UP-DN-DN
Cycles: unreliable (too trendy)
Market Direction: upward retracement on downward dominant trend
Position (60mins): looking for long exit point

60mins: peak?
RUT hasn't done too badly this last few days, with the 688 pivot level tested twice giving the rebound more vigor. RUT is however now lacking steam to go much higher. Having said that this MTFS+Entropy configuration is not the easiest to read, so we'll give the up Swing the benefit of the doubt and opt for a very mild upward bias. From a level point of view, the resistance could be around current mid 720s at least for now.

Daily: upward retracement
Despite the Swing remaining decidedly down, retracement has proven stronger than anticipated. While not overly convincing, MTFS and Entropy are positive, so RUT may even reach the low to mid 740s. This is in no way a return to a bull trend though, and RUT may slow down and congest a little.

Weekly: back to lows...?
The Fed cut shifted the scenario upward by 50 to 70 points but no real change in current outlook. Certainly a bit of a reprieve at the moment but it is only if 750 is broken with assurance that we could envisage the end of the current correction. For the time being, while Entropy is looking slightly better, MTFS is still quite bearish.