Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Market Snapshot for ER2 (RUT) - Jun 18th 2008

cf. SPY post below for guidance

Market Snapshot for NDX - Jun 18th 2008

cf. SPY post below for guidance

Market Outlook SPY for Jun 18th '08

Dominant TF: weekly and... intraday TFs (10mins!)
Swings: DN-DN-UP (from DN-DN-DN)
Market Direction (daily): retracement
Position (60mins): short

Taking a look at the last SPY post on June 10th, I see myself mentioning NDX finding support around 1908, and indeed it bounced at 1909. Not too bad I would say...
It seems that tech stocks led the way, hence SPY followed suit and recovered before reaching the lower target i gave. However this may just be a small timing glitch. Let's see where SPY is going now.

Note: EURUSD is in a trading range, with a slight lower bias. Shorter time frames are recommended.

60mins: lower bias, looking for support around 134.3
It is a pity that significance level is coming down because we have a classic bearish MTFS formation which could take SPY back to recent lows. Lower intraday time frames are not helping at the moment, so a trading range with a lower bias, i.e. SPY drifting a bit is our only scenario right now.

Daily: trading range
Like on the 60mins chart, SPY seems constrained in a [133:137.50] trading range with a lower bias. Entropy is weak and MTFS is also not indicating more than a drifting situation. The market is maybe waiting for triple witching and the next Fed meeting to find a direction.

Weekly: crucial time...
No major change from last post except that a retracement is now in place and we are eagerly waiting to see where the support level is...
This is indeed a crucial configuration as the last pivot point (144.30) could well develop a down Fib pattern for which we would then have a 125 target level.
No panic however as we certainly have only little indication of bearishness in MTFS and Entropy, so this is only little more than a congestion period at this level still, also visible from the Swing indicator hesitating around current levels. We still favour a return to bullish mode over the medium term, but as said above, new information will be needed to determine direction.