Thursday, April 03, 2008

Market Snapshot for EURUSD - Apr 3rd 2008

For a couple fo weeks, a EURUSD snapshot is also published to keep a record of a possible change in dynamics in this forex pair, as it has consequences on other indices and symbols such as @QM (oil).
We'll watch the 1.5625 key level very carefully for forthcoming direction.

Market Snapshot for RUT - Apr 3rd 2008

cf. NDX post below for guidance

Market Snapshot for SPY - Apr 3rd 2008

cf. NDX post below for guidance.

Market Outlook NDX for Apr 3rd '08

Dominant TF: 60mins then Daily. Weekly chart coming back too.
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market Direction (Daily): up, but test level in sight
Cycles: unreliable
Position (60mins): long, but possible profit taking to re-enter later on

I was maybe a little conservative on last post on Mar 31st, as NDX has since managed to complete the Fib pattern to strong MM resistance level. While it was a possibility (bounce on Fib level), it wasn't quite yet visible last week.

Again, we shall watch for clues in correlated markets and keep an eye on EURUSD.

60mins: hesitation on target level.
NDX has reached its target level is now visibly abating (MTFS + weaker Entropy). Target level could be tested again.

Daily: upper bias for now
It was interesting to see that the MTFS recovery pattern finally made it despite some uncertainty last week. Difficult to know whether squaring out positions on quarter end, and adjustments on new quarter had an impact, but outlook looks much better.
However, we'll have to keep in mind that the daily time frame is not our dominant time frame at the moment.
Profit taking could occur within a couple of days (EntBin is high and MTFS white line separating)

Weekly: caution...
The Swing indicator is hesitating, but is still DOWN. MTFS is still moderately bearish despite the bounce in the last 2 to 3 weeks. Again, we have to see completion of the MTFS pattern and dissipation of negative pressure in the market.
NDX should reach PR1 (~1880) but it is too early to go higher. NDX could then pull back a little again, but as mentioned previously, put spreads should be quite safe now, i.e. the worst seems to be over.