Saturday, June 21, 2008

Market Snapshot for ER2 (RUT) - Jun 23rd 2008

cf. SPY post below for guidance.

Market Snapshot for NDX - Jun 23rd 2008

cf. SPY post below for guidance

Market Outlook SPY for Jun 23rd '08

Dominant TF: weekly and... intraday TFs (10mins!)
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-DN-UP)
Market Direction (daily): retracement
Position (60mins): short

On my last SPY for June 20th, my position was short and it still is. Admittedly i did not expect more than price erosion, but derivatives expiry seems to have exacerbated volatility again. You will as a matter of fact also notice that i recommended staying on the side line yesterday for NDX. Obviously shorter intraday time frames provided the accurate picture.

Note on EURUSD: we'll keep an eye on 1.5625 key level. The Fed meeting next week may impact the €/$ rate. There are more and more rumours of central banks intervening too.

60mins: down, looking at possible short term target.
MTFS and Entropy both point for continuation of the down move to the next MM or Fib target level. MM support was hit intraday and will be tested again. The Auto Fib calculated the next target level (L3) at 129.71 yet one should not understimate the strength of the current MM support level which could hold at least over the next few bars.

Daily: lower
Our trading range has been broken on the down side, so we may hit MM stall level just above 128 pretty soon. We also have a Fib target in the same area. MTFS is now fairly bearish so this scenario has little chance to fail.

Weekly: crucial time...
No major change from last post except that a retracement is now in place with a Swing indicator now firmly down. We are therefore eagerly waiting to see where the support level will be...
This is indeed a crucial configuration as the last pivot point (144.30) is now developing into a full downward Fib pattern with a 125 target level at first.
MTFS looks more and more like a failed recovery pattern, confirming this scenario mentioned several times over the last couple of weeks.