Friday, January 18, 2008

Market Snapshot for RUT - Jan 18th 2008

Market Snapshot for SPY - Jan 18th 2008

Market Outlook NDX for Jan 18th '08

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Cycles (DomTF): pointing down, but somewhat unreliable in this market
Market Direction (Daily): obvious
Position (60mins):
Short: definitely
Flat: wise
Long: short intraday time frames only

We have noticed on Jan 16th that support level turned lower, so a renetry short on the 1st red bar (here 1871 but effectively earlier and higher on lower time frame charts).

60mins: lower
As mentioned in earlier posts, polar bears are having a 2nd Christmas here. It is fairly common to see price acceleration when important levels break. There is no change in dynamics so one can only anticipate a slowdown on current Fib target ~1840 (low time frames), but more likely lower (stall level ~1812).

Daily: lower until pattern completion
MTFS is obviously bearish and nothing seems to be able to stop the fall until the pattern is complete with a line crossover in oversold territory, and with a better looking gradient. It could take a few days... and until then, NDX could well shed a few more points. MM support level is now 1750, with a stall level just above 1800.

Weekly: definite down bias, check Fib and MM levels
We incidently have a support level around 1800 (last lows) coinciding with a possible target on the daily chart.
We can also check Fib retracement levels, with 50% retracement right here (which could be penetrated to 1800 actually), then PR2 (61.8%) at 1750, which is also a possible target.
Until then, no panic... this is just a market correction which we may have forgotten but which happens from time to time.