Saturday, January 26, 2008

Market Snapshot for NDX - Jan 28th 2008

Could i have been more right on Friday... :)

For details: cf RUT posted below

Market Snapshot for SPY - Jan 28th 2008

cf RUT post below (similar scenario)

Market Outlook RUT for Jan 28th '08

Dominant TF: Daily declining, Weekly picking up
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Cycles: unreliable (too trendy)
Market Direction: congestion at best, possibly lower still
Position (60mins): flat for most, short otherwise.

I love it when i'm spot like yesterday on NDX... anyway, let's move on to this one. Typical reprieve offered by bears having some indigestion, yet their appetite could well come back soon enough.

60mins: bottom has been found... for now
RUT struggled to retrace up almost to Fib PR1. Entropy is fading and it is now sitting on pivot level. 750 is now the strong MM resistance level with 625 as strong support. RUT may be a little directionless, but the overall down bias should take over soon.

Daily: possible congestion - lower vol.
MTFS has been trying to point for recovery but not too convincing i must say. One wouldn't go long on a down Swing anyway, and even if the fall stopped on MM stall level, there is some potential to test support level if not going lower.

Weekly: bottom?
The week ended on a red bar, bearish looking MTFS and Entropy. What more can i say. If MTFS had shown a green line holding up high while the white line drops sharply, one would have likely had a recovery potential, but this figure is bearish. Having said that, ther may be retracements and a possible congestion in the [625 - 687] trading range.
We now have to wait Entropy to bottom out, MTFS to look better and the end of the series of red bars to anticipate a confirmed bottom.