Monday, August 18, 2008

Weeky Outlook on ES 18th to 22th Aug '08

Dominant TF: weekly
Swings: UP-UP-UP (from UP-UP-UP)
Market Direction(daily): long, but stops are now tigthened

Please also read ER2 post below for guidance.

The wavy upper bias was our favoured scenario, and it proved to be easy to follow with clear swings last week. We only expect further weakening now in the short term, but no major change over the longer term.

60mins: upper bias weakening
MTFS and Entropy have trouble showing us the way to the larget, and since this is no longer a dominant TF, we may take cues from lower intraday time frames.
We still have a target just above 1300, but ES may also congest a bit. No major retracement in sight though.

Daily: weaker trend
MTFS points higher but also seems to indicate that ES is losing steam. It should crawl higher but unconvincingly. We'll watch for Entropy indicating a possible retracement, probably needed to take ES higher later on. For the time being, the bar is still blue so we'll wait for exhaustion of current momentum to update our positive outlook. In the meantime stops are being tightened.

Weekly: Again, worst is over but...
No major change from last week.
Now that we've seen support holding, we have been looking for a recovery potential, but it appears it will start on a slow note. We may even see some congestion above 1250, as the MTFS crossover we are seeing now comes on a negative gradient of the green line indicating some remaining underlying negative momentum.