Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 9th '07

Dominant TF: Weekly and Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: Up until...

Note that SPY is the leading symbol in our selection of 3 indices.

60mins: Up, but pivot level then July highs must be tested.

RUT calmed down on the 843 pivot level, so we now have a reprieve on that level with the AdStoK showing a bit of weakness and Entropy falling. Yet the significance level is low, so one may just see some congestion but no serious retracement in the short term. On the contrary, RUT may try and test the pivot level and possibly July highs later on.

Daily: UP.

AdStoK is still bullish and should carry on its bumpy ride to higher levels. The white line is now seriously overbought, so a minor retracement is possible without affecting the overall trend... until lines join...
Current resistance level at 843 is fairly strong then 860 and ultimately 875.
AdStoK's green line grows at a rate of 5% per day at the moment, so it could take at least a few days before it reaches overbought level and some slowing down. The white line may however retrace and provide some relief in the meantime.

Weekly: UP
Entropy and AdStoK now show more clearly the way up to 851, 860 then maybe 875 over the next couple of weeks. The Swing indicator is up, but remains close to a key turning point.

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 9th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: UP ...

60mins: Up, but very overbought.

NDX seems to be heading for the 2188 level now, but it could pause around 2156 first since Entropy is coming down a bit. No retracement in sight in the short term.

Daily: Crazy, i.e. still up. A slowdown would be salutary though, maybe around 2150.
Entropy is historically very high and AdStoK is so overbought that we have to see which resistance level will now hold.
Levels to watch: 2188 first then 2250. A retracement on 2188 is possible.

Weekly: UP until resistance is found
AdStoK lines should soon meet, but significance level is so low at this time frame, so this is nothing more than a background information.
One can however notice a divergence, hence there is a possible slowdown on forthcoming resistance and line meeting point.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 9th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: UP until...

Note that SPY is the leading symbol in our index selection (S&P500, NDX and RUT).

60mins: Neutral to mildly UP. Possible new test of current highs.

SPY is breathing a bit after a strong run to Fib and MM level.
AdStoK shows a line separation with a fairly shallow gradient of the green line. There is therefore only a little chance it goes lower right now. Entropy is also losing the accumulated energy, so it is difficult a direction going forward.
Expected range: 154.50 - 156-25

Daily: neutral to mildly UP until resistance is tested.
Entropy is still quite high, and only slowly declining. AdStoK is also showing first signs of weakness, and lines could cross today or tomorrow. We now have to watch how the market attacks this strong resistance level (July highs + MM + FIB (60mins)).
One must be careful though not to jump to conclusion and anticipate a reversal any time soon.

Weekly: mildly UP until resistance is tested.
The Swing indicator is now more firmly up, but the key swing price level is still close at this time frame.
Entropy is slowly looking better, and the trend should be at least mildly up until AdStoK lines cross.
So, for the time being, no visible change in market dynamics coming (despite expectations of a bumpy October).
One will have to keep an eye on AdStoK lines cross, as there is a chance of divergence in this indicator with lines joining at a lower level than prices (double top coming?).