Thursday, July 02, 2009

Market Update - Jul 2nd '09

ES jumped to almost reach stall level yesterday, reaching about Fib PR2 (61.8% retracement on the daily chart) and only has some residual energy to go higher. It could however creep higher to the top of the trading at the stall level again or even the strong resistance level on the mid 930s. A more likely scenario in the short term is a period of hesitation in the low to mid 910s though. In case of some acceleration of selling, we do notice a Fib target just above 900. However we have no clear pattern yet which could indicate the sizeable retracement we've announced for a while. (Will it ever happen ?)

TF shows a very minor pause or retracement to come on the 60mins chart, but remains more resilient overall. It could well try and hit 520 again by the end of the week. On the longer term, just as ES, TF shows a provisional pivot on the weekly chart with a very high entropy, which should indicate a reversal, but it may be a long way away still, and probably on current highs, if not higher.

( posted 7 AM UK )