Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Market Snapshot for EURUSD - Apr 16th 2008

Here is an update on EURUSD. The bias is obviously still up, but we'll check levels carefully for a possible breakout.

Market Snapshot for ER2 - Apr 16th 2008

cf. NDX post below for guidance.

Market Snapshot for SPY - Apr 16th 2008

cf. NDX post below for guidance.

Market Outlook NDX for Apr 16th '08

Dominant TF: 60mins. As mentioned last time, some may want to shift the set of time frames (TFS) down (30mn, 60mn, 240mn)
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Market Direction (Daily): erosion
Cycles: unreliable
Position (60mins): flat to short

I was admittedly too conservative last time (3 trading days ago), but the situation became clearer since, so those who switched to a lower time frame as recommended will have shorted NDX.

60mins: erosion overall but bounce is likely at first.
Classic head&shoulder followed by Fib development. There is still a mild erosion potential which could take NDX down to 1750. If we stick to the current chart situation though, MTFS and Entropy are the contrary pointly very slightly up. NDX could therefore reach 1810 again in the short term. We may even have a new 30mins Fib pattern developing at the same time.

Daily: retracement looking for support.
NDX has bounced on the 50% retracement level, but MTFS is clearly indicating a lower bias, so PR2 (61.8%) (+MM) is a more likely support level. MTFS also indicates higher lows, so NDX could well go higher later on.

Weekly: patience...
We certainly see MTFS looking better, accelerating the dissipation of the negative pressure we've had for a few months. There is no substantial recovery potential right now but bars are blue, so we may see some kind of a cupd&handle formation and NDX finally going up in a few weeks. The exact bottom cannot be determined here, so we'll follow shorter time frames for decision points. In the longer term, the 2000 level will be the major test level determining direction for the rest of the year probably.