Thursday, January 24, 2008

Market Snapshot for RUT - Jan 24th 2008

Same scenario as for SPY.

Market Snapshot for NDX - Jan 24th '08

More or less same scenario as for SPY, only slightly more bearish maybe.
NDX always over-reacts (higher volatility).

Market Outlook SPY for Jan 24th '08

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Cycles: unreliable (too trendy)
Market Direction: congestion at best, possibly lower still
Position: flat for most.

125 seems to hold, and contrarian traders are in already.

60mins: bottom has been found... for now
SPY made a good recovery in the afternoon, and indicators do look much better. Significance level is not too high, so one would have looked at lower time frames for a possible long entry.
What next? Again, some profit taking is possible early in the day (resistance level), even if bears now get slowly exhausted.

Daily: no strong recovery just yet
MTFS is only looking slightly better bow with lines attempting an upturn, yet the early crossover must leave us cautious, and the bar is still red after all. Entropy may be bottoming out (with a EntBin = -4).
Since the rebound happened on Fib target and MM pivot level, moderate optimism is possible.

Weekly: bottom?
MTFS and Entropy do still point downward, but EntBin is only -1 and MTFS significance level is quite low. No rejoicing however, we have to wait Entropy to bottom out, MTFS to look better and the end of the series of red bars.