Sunday, October 11, 2009

Weekly Report - Oct 12th to Sep 16th '09

ES has crept higher relentlessly the whole week, right to the 1062 resistance level which is still valid even though penetrated on Friday.
Since we should always stick to our "go with the flow" guideline, we have to push back our longer term indications of the retracement announced on the weekly chart (EntBin = 5).
The daily chart also remains bullish for now, but we have to realize that the 60mins chart IS the dominant time frame by far with a significance level of 88% (only 34% and 31% on higher time frames).

ES could therefore either enter into a airhole or test September highs again, or higher to 1125. We're not going to carry on waiting anxiously for the reversal point as it can take a couple of weeks or more. We'll monitor shorter time frames, update our scenario day after day, and as always "go with the flow..."

No TF data (problem with the TradeStation server) so we can 't confront the analysis of our two indices as we always do. We'll try again tomorrow.

EURUSD: The situation is not so clear here with some erosion in short waves on the 60mins chart. Yet, on the daily chart, the trading range we've seen since mid-october is still valid, with 1.464 remaining a key pivot level. Like for indices, a retracement potential is quite visible on the weekly chart, but once confirmed (after hitting 1.50 or 1.51 in a few weeks?) such pullback should remain relatively limited (23% Fib retracement at the very most).

( posted Sunday Noon UK)