Monday, March 17, 2008

Market Snapshot for RUT - Mar 17th 2008

cf. NDX post below

Market Snapshot for SPY - Mar 17th 2008

cf. NDX post below

Market Outlook NDX for Mar 17th '08

Dominant TF: Daily, then 60mins
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Market Direction (Daily): congestion to down
Cycles: high noise level
Position (60mins): neutral to negative delta. short.

The trend is still down, and technically the incapacity to pass 1750 does not bode well for the next few days and weeks.

60mins: down but...
The MTFS pattern points down, so does Entropy. However, a support should be found within a few bars. NDX should stay in the lower part of the [1688-1750] range. The fact that 1750 has turned to strong resistance indicates a difficulty going higher anyway. We'll watch the Entropy bottoming out for a possible sign of a support, probably close to the bottom of the current range.

Last time, i warned against getting carried away by the strong up day we had. We indeed saw no follow-through and we are still in a 'price erosion' mode.
Failing to pass 1750 would certainly point to a lower support, possibly around 1625 (125 point interval between salient MM levels).

Weekly: again and again, it is bearish...
But Entropy is so low (EntBin = -5) that a bounce must occur sometime soon. Difficult to know exactly when though. The 1750 support level looks like history, but there is a minute chance it can still hold if the forthcoming bounce is strong enough to stop the fall.