Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Market Outlook RUT for Jan 16th '08

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Cycles: unreliable (too trendy)
Market Direction: support level in sight
Short: exited
Flat: wise
Long: follow lower time frames

Bears are having a feast since Christmas, and nobody seems to want to spoil their fun.
I announced an exit short (a little conservative maybe), based on the daily chart as usual.
MM Support level around 688 will be hit.

60mins: congestion to lower until support level is confirmed
No major change. We're still waiting for reaction on support level. We have some indication of an interesting Gartley pattern in lower time frames. We should have an interesting trading day :)

Daily: congestion
Same congestion with a lower bias (688 is now quite close). We have to wait for Entropy to bounce but it is so low (EntBin = -5) that it may happen soon. Despite the volatile environment we're going through, MTFS does not indicate a market fall

Weekly: congestion to down
More worrisome maybe is the increased degradation of the long term environment. The MTFS green line is still relatively high, so no panic just yet, but caution should certainly be exercised. If 688 is broken, check MM and Fib levels for support.

Market Snapshot for SPY - Jan 16th 2008

Market Snapshot for NDX - Jan 16th 2008