Tuesday, September 25, 2007

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 25th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & weekly!
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP.

60mins: neutral to mildly Down, til support is found

The major 812.50 resistance level has held, and RUT has now retraced a bit. Support must now be found either now at 805 or 797-799 (or -1%) which would provide a stronger foundation to go higher.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP, possible congestion.
AdStoK is somewhat bullish but the pattern while getting clearer is not the easiest to read. The significance level is low at this time frame, so one should maybe just not read too much into it.
One has to first wait how RUT behaves around this key 812 level.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator which had just turned UP is DN again, but Entropy shows signs of bottoming up, so RUT could creep slowly to 843 over the next few weeks. There could however be some hesitation around this 812 key level first, so we need this level to be passed to confirm this scenario. Also note that this time frame's significance level is pretty high now.

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 25th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (also 60mins to an extent)
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: mildly UP until resistance is truly tested.

60mins: neutral to mildly DN, possible congestion.

NDX started the day quite bullish to a Fib level (lower time frame) but the 2062 key level held, then NDX retraced a bit.
It should now remain in the higher part of the same 2030 - 2060 trading range.
Strange enough, the Swing indicator is still Down, indicating a possible congestion.

Daily: neutral to UP
AdStoK remains bullish and Entropy has picked up steam again. While there can be some hesitation when testing new highs, there is no indication of any retracement going forward.

Weekly: UP ?
AdStoK does not quite seem to follow price action, and Entropy is still weak. Possible divergence then? One could perhaps be cautious about a possible double top, but this is not the dominant time frame, so not to worry for now.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 25th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.

60mins: neutral to mildly DN, til bounce on support

Same as yesterday: support must be found either now on 151.50 or lower 150 (i.e. -1%). There is still some negative bias, and 150 is a stronger Fib level.
There is no indication SPY will then go lower. A new Fib pattern may form to give a 156 target.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP
Same as yesterday: AdStoK is certainly bullish although also slighlty overbought. The AdStoK pattern is fairly clear, until the Green Line joins the White Line at least. With some weakening in the white line as well as Entropy, SPY may crawl to 153.50. It should test highs later on.
Likely range: 150 to 153 and 155.50 (July highs).

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP

The Swing indicator has turned UP and the chart certainly looks more bullish, but one has to first see what will happen when July highs are truly tested...