Friday, April 11, 2008

Market Snapshot for ER2 - Apr 11th 2008

For some odd reason, I have no access to RUT (it seems I'm not the only one), so I swapped for the continuous futures contract ER2 today as the technique can be used on any symbol.
Again, cf. today's posts below for guidance.

Market Snapshot for SPY - Apr 11th 2008

cf. NDX post below for guidance.

Market Outlook NDX for Apr 11th '08

Dominant TF: 60mins with weekly chart coming back too. We will notice sub-optimal significance level, so shorter time frames may be considered too (30mins).
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market Direction (Daily): hesitation on resistance level
Cycles: unreliable
Position (60mins): flat

NDX has been evolving between MM levels, after reaching strong MM + Fib target levels (retracement was anticipated on previous post). I here added a shorter intraday snapshot to better visualise dynamics on a 30mins chart.

60mins: still undecisive
We have classic Fib formations here and we would certainly generally favour the bigger one pointing higher. MTFS while showing some hesitation is also pointing up. Yet, for a change, we'll look at the 30mins chart too. MTFS is not very different there, but we will keep an eye on that Fib formation there pointing down.
Such hesitation may take NDX either to 1836 or even 1819 (less likely). It may take up to a day to determine direction.

Daily: fairly bullish still but retracement is likely at first
NDX may have started the retracement we anticipated (MTFS pattern and Entropy peaking). Now since the MTFS green line is higher, there should not be any major change in trend once the retracement is over. We will therefore consider Fib levels as possible supports.

Weekly: patience...
no change since last post:
The Swing indicator is hesitating, but is still DOWN. MTFS is still moderately bearish despite the bounce in the last 2 to 3 weeks. Again, we have to see completion of the MTFS pattern and dissipation of negative pressure in the market.
NDX has now reached PR1 (~1880) exactly as anticipated, but the MTFS pattern should certainly prevent NDX from going higher for now. It seems a pause or a moderate retracement is inevitable. The 2000 level will later on be a lot more determinant for future direction.