Monday, January 07, 2008

Market Outlook RUT for Jan 7th '08

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Cycles: possible upturn, but fairly low significance level...
Market Direction: down, but possible support level at 719
Position (60mins):
Short: some may want to hang on, but nothing wrong with taking profits.
Flat: it would be cautious to stay a little longer on the sideline
Long: are we looking at the same chart !!!?!?

60mins: the fall may at last find some support
734 did not hold in such a bearish environment. Next support level is 719, almost hit Friday afternoon. The MTFS white line is stabilising indicating the fall may be soon over, but the other lines still look quite bearish. 719 looks like it could hold though.

Daily: down but 719 may hold.
MTFS lines have a negative gradient that is too steep for RUT to recover right now. The pattern we saw since lines crossed over has failed and now needs a new start. Entropy is low, so the 719 level could hold but one should remain cautious as it also go lower.
Upturn in current cycle is unlikely right now (significance level way too low).

Weekly: lower bias
MTFS is not looking too good, while its significance level is picking up. A support must be found soon otherwise RUT will definitely turn to correction mode down to 680.