Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Market Outlook ER2 (RUT) for May 13th '08

cf. NDX post below for guidance.

Current options positions:
Short May780 Calls, Long May790 Calls, Long May550 Puts, Short May560 Puts.
Short Jun790 Calls, Long Jun800 Calls, Long Jun610 Puts, Short Jun620 Puts.

Market Snapshot for SPY - May 13th 2008

cf. NDX post below for guidance

Market Outlook NDX for May 13th '08

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market Direction (Daily): congestion/peak
Cycles: quite unreliable
Position (60mins): upper bias but quite volatile (check lower time frames)

I estimated yesterday that bearishness was temporary and support would be found soon ("from current lows to possibly 137.50"). While i was about right that previous day's lows would hold, I admittedly was surprised by such a good looking bounce (natural attraction to key levels).
Now, back to NDX which found support in the high 1940s, which incidently were stall level on lower intraday time frames (way more significant than the 60mins time frame). Yet, despite the high volatility environment has remained positive over the last few days. We'll however remain very cautious at this key level.

60mins: close to the 2000 mark again.
Significance level is not great and Entropy may peak again around the 2000 resistance level. We'll take cues from lower time frames which do look bullish, so penetrating (at least temporarily) the resistance level is possible.

Daily: likely congestion at test level
Again, MTFS points towards a congestion or minor upper bias at this high level. If resistance holds, a minor retracement is also possible without affecting the overall up trend.

Weekly: Caution - Resistance level around 2000
The Swing is UP again as we approach the key 2000 level (Fib + MM). It should technically hover on that level or a little higher (Fib level is around 2010), as it is probably too early to digest the financial crisis we've experienced.