Saturday, July 25, 2009

Weekly Report - Jul 27th to Aug 1st '09

ES has reached a resistance area (977 to 984) yet is still so bullish that one almost couldn't see it stopping before hitting the "Almighty 1000". Technically speaking, the 1000 level is also a collection of several Fib and MM levels hence we should consider it more like a battlefield than a demarcation line.

ES could actually slow down and even retrace a little still ahead of the major target. Well, we have a few advanced indicators like MTFS and Entropy, but like last week, we have to see them peaking first, so it may take a day or two to materialize. Note that 30mins time frames and lower do respond better at the moment.

TF has almost surprisingly reached the same Fib target (547) at the exact same time. Dynamics are virtually identical, and we can here therefore anticipate the next target (Fib + MM) in the 600 area, which would translate into the higher part of the target range for ES i.e. more around 1040 (2nd Fib target). Again, MTFS and Entropy here too announce a pause and a possible limited retracement, hence those targets should be reached in waves over a week or two. It remains difficult to anticipate that trajectory with any sort of accuracy with volumes likely to drop as we approach the month of August.

( posted Sat 1:30 PM UK )

Note that i might skip a report or two next week, unless the market really surprises us enough to warrant an update of this scenario. EURUSD may actually be a lot more interesting to monitor, the being question mark being if/when it will take off to its next target around 1.465