Monday, February 04, 2008

Market Snapshot for RUT - Feb 4th 2008

cf NDX post below

Market Snapshot for SPY - Feb 4th 2008

cf. NDX post below

Market Outlook NDX for Feb 4th '08

Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: UP-DN-DN
Cycles (DomTF): pointing down, but somewhat unreliable in this market
Market Direction (Daily): congestion with upper bias
Position (60mins): flat, however selling 2150 call spreads is still a very conservative bet, Feb 2000 is pretty safe too

Fed rate cut brought a bit of volatility to leave finally the market more or less in it (short term) recovery course. Having said that, little visibility... and little chance to see NDX pass the 1875 level.

60mins: congestion with a remaining slight upward bias.
MTFS lines are about flat in median territory, so is Entropy, and not help from levels right now (possible target at 1875). Swing quality is lower that higher time frames which are pointing down.

Daily: support confirmed but...
Such MTFS crossover is hordly ever indicative of a good recovery. However lines are pointing up and Entropy is also doing better confirming the upward bias for now. One can notice that the Fed cut had very little effect, so the momentary boost we've had may lapse soon...

Weekly: definite down bias still
No reason to be optimistic here, so while some may want to go contrarian in shorter time frames, one should remain VERY cautious long term.