Friday, March 14, 2008

Market Snapshot for EURUSD - Mar 14th 2008

Here is the EURUSD forex pair.
The technique being universal, i thought it would be interesting for some to have a look at a forex pair. This chart won't be commented on this blog though. I might also change pair from time to time i.e. no intention to provide forex trading advice for free.

There is indeed currently a LOT of interest on the toolset and trading technique for forex trading. For the time being, there is only one type of license for any TradeStation symbol, but this may change in the future.

Market Snapshot for RUT - Mar 14th 2008

cf. SPY post below

Market Snapshot for NDX - Mar 14th 2008

cf. SPY post below

Market Outlook SPY for Mar 14th '08

Dominant TF: 60mins, but weekly chart picking up fast.
Swings: UP-DN-DN
Market Direction: same indecision, so too early to say we're out of the woods...

Looking back at yesterday's post on RUT, I hope you will take note of the MTFS pattern on the 60mins chart. It is a classic one, hence my assertion RUT would come and hit support level again. The later recovery was stronger than i thought, but it was an excellent day for a successful short then a long entry.
Now what do we see today?

60mins: again, not much steam
SPY is highly correlated to the other 2 symbols on this blog, but we'll try now and then to check whether levels are clearer on one or the other. This time again, we're back in a trading range looking for direction. There is some momemtum left, yet sellers are far from being exhausted and pushed out of the market, so we'll have to accept some ambiguity direction-wise, or move to lower time frames. On this market triptych, the weekly chart gives overall context, and one could move to a lower time frame 15 or 30 mins for direction.
One shall remain very cautious with long entries.

Daily: bearish
On the last SPY post, I wrote of a "failed recovery" pattern. MTFS and Entropy at this time frame are still quite bearish, hence still indication of a strong rebound despite what we've seen earlier this week. Caution MUST be exercised. The outlook remains the same, i.e. a trading range [125:140], which can be traded with condors. Delta should remain negative or neutral.

Weekly: bottom?
Copy/Paste the last post, i.e. no significant change:
For the last few weeks, SPY has been hovering around the low to mid 130s, but we could clearly see that it had no energy to pass the first significant Fib level on the up side and both MTFS and Entropy have always remained quite bearish.
As we have said for RUT and NDX, the patterns must now complete and only a drop or a congestion at these low levels can bring MTFS to oversold levels to see a new pattern then emerging. The key words for the time being are therefore a lot of patience and again and again some caution.

Got my calendar wrong on options expiration the other day. It is obviously next week.