Friday, June 20, 2008

Market Snapshot for ER2 (RUT) - Jun 20th 2008

cf. NDX post below for guidance

Market Snapshot for SPY - Jun 20th 2008

cf NDX post below for guidance

Market Outlook NDX for Jun 20th '08

Dominant TF: none here! switch to 30mins and lower intraday time frames
Swings: UP-DN-UP (from DN-DN-UP)
Position (60mins): long, target in sight
Market Direction (Daily): congestion to down

Yesterday's forecast for ER2 was pretty accurate with indeed some congestion early in the day and then the development of an upward Fib expansion pattern.
Now back to NDX, last post brought about the new MM resistance level on 2000, which explains both the attraction and hesitation at that level. We also notice poor significance level indicating a necessity to switch to lower time frames for entry/exit points.

60mins: up, target in sight.
NDX is again trying to reach 2000 and may again fall a little short of that target. We do have a Fib pattern and a positive MTFS in favour of an upper bias, but we'll also take into account lower significance level and triple witching day today. A lot of traders will stay on the sideline today. So will we.

Daily: trading range for the time being
Despite yesterday's up day, MTFS is still only pointing towards some congestion or trading range, hesitating between an upper and a lower bias from one day to the next. There could obviously be new energy if 2000 is broken decisively but we are at this point in time more likely to see 2000 as a strong resistance level.
We will keep an eye on a down channel possibly forming soon.

Weekly: Congestion at key level, minor upper bias remaining.
Despite current volatility, we see no major change at this level. We're now entering a congestion phase around the key 2000 level. MTFS and Entropy seem to be resilient for the time being, yet we also do notice the MTFS white line weakening and Entropy peaking though. Significance level being lower, we'll take the current picture with a pinch of salt and concentrate on pure price formations. On such crucial test level, Fib patterns can develop both ways here, even if a downturn still looks unlikely.
Pivot number 3 (2050) could indeed turn into a full downward Fib pattern (target 1700), or could still be erased to take NDX back to last year's highs (>2200). Again the cautiously bullish scenario is still favoured for now and confirmation should come within 3 to 6 weeks. Since this is not the dominant time frames, clues will certainly arise from lower time frame indicators.