Saturday, September 29, 2007

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 1st '07

Dominant TF: weekly & 60mins to an extent
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP. Key 812.50 level still in place.

60mins: Mildly down. Possible congestion in [800-812] trading range

It seems like the market has now given up on the 812.50 key level, and now is momentarily pausing.
A new support must be found lower (Fib pattern forming).

Daily: neutral to mildly UP, probable congestion.
AdStoK is still bullish but is certainly losing steam, so is Entropy, indicating some difficulties going much higher.
Looking ahead: If 812.50 is finally passed, the target will be 827-829 (Fib + MM), otherwise 797 - 800 will be tested again. Retracement is however likely, without even impacting the overall trend.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
Entropy is showing signs of bottoming up, and AdStoK could very slowly building a "U" shape pattern, so RUT could creep slowly to 843 over the next few weeks.
There could however be some hesitation around this 812.50 key level first, so we need this level to be passed to confirm this scenario. One cannot indeed discard another scenario if 812.50 keeps holding... which is a Fib down formation with a 750 target.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 1st '07

Dominant TF: Daily (also 60mins to an extent)
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: Neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion. Check 153.50 key level.

60mins: neutral. Probable congestion.

AdStoK and Entropy are both indicating congestion with negative bias. SPY is likely to remain in a trading range, and possibly retrace a bit if the market gives up on the 153.50 key level.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.
AdStoK and Entropy are both stabilising, and AdStoK lines are about to cross. Possible congestion to small increase to 153.50 in the short term. AdStoK lines should give us clues on direction in a couple of days.
One should note that the current resistance level at 150 is still in place, indicating some difficulty going higher.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator is still hesitant, but it is likely that highs will be tested. Entropy is slowly looking better, and the AdStoK white line is clearly showing the "U" shape indicating recovery at least until lines cross.
So, for the time being, no visible change in market dynamics coming (despite expectations of a bumpy October).
This time frame is not the dominant one, which is visible with the Swing indicator finding difficult to adapt to the high volatility environment we've had lately.

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 1st '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP, until resistance is truly tested. Probable congestion.

60mins: neutral with possible congestion to minor retracement.

NDX remains somewhat bullish and the 2125 target certainly looks close enough. There is however congestion around 2094 (MM stall level on shorter time frames). Entropy also turned negative, and shorter times frames look more congested.
In case of some retracement, NDX could test 2078 - 2080 first.

Daily: mildly UP. Congestion, due to extreme overbought situation.
NDX looks very bullish and should therefore carry on its ride, although possibly bumpy, to 2125.
One must keep an eye on MM 'stall' level at 2094. AdStoK have now joined in extreme overbought territory, Entropy could peak soon, so one has to watch for a possible congestion to minor profit taking. No change in trend though.

Weekly: mildly UP to UP
AdStoK lines should soon meet, but significance level is low at this time frame, so this is nothing more than a background information.
One can probably anticipate increasing difficulty in reaching the strong MM resistance level at 2125.