Friday, June 13, 2008

Market Snapshot for ER2 (RUT) - Jun 13th 2008

cf. SPY post below for guidance.

Market Snapshot for NDX - Jun 13th 2008

cf. SPY post below for guidance.

Market Outlook SPY for Jun 13th '08

Dominant TF: all 3
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market Direction (daily): retracement
Position (60mins): short

We were bearish on our last June 10th post with the finger on the button on a possible breaking of the key 137.50 pivot level which eventually fell without much resistance from buyers.
A fairly straightforward situation overall.
Taking a look back at NDX yesterday, spot on again with the selling first slowing down then resuming yet the support is indeed to be found lower around 1908 for now.

More hesitation on EURUSD at our time frames. Those who insist on trading it will move to shorter intraday time frames. We will keep an eye on 1.5381 which could open the way to a firmer $.

60mins: lower, looking for support
As anticipated last time, MM levels have shifted south. Everyting is still pointing toward SPY drifting to the MM support level near 131.25 yet a slow down near stall level is likely (132.69). We've seen some waves of buying over the last few days, so one may want to switch to lower time frames should one wish to catch optimal entry/exit points.

Daily: looking for support
Last SPY post could not be more right and we are still looking at 133 being tested soon. MTFS and Entropy being fairly bearish, SPY could even (momentarily) go lower.

Weekly: crucial time...
No major change from last post except that a retracement is now in place and we are eagerly waiting to see where the support level is...
This is indeed a crucial configuration as the last pivot level (144.30) could well develop a down Fib pattern for which we would then have a 125 target level.
No panic however as we certainly have no indication of bearishness in MTFS and Entropy, so this is only little more than a congestion period at this level still. We still favour a return to bullish mode over the medium term.