Friday, September 28, 2007

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 28th '07

Dominant TF: none
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP. Key 812.50 level still in place.

60mins: neutral to mildly Up. Possible congestion.

The major 812.50 resistance level is still valid but the AdStoK recovery ("V" shape pattern) is now about completed with still some upward momentum in store. RUT's behaviour around this key level is crucial to forthcoming direction (will this resistance be broken today?).

Daily: neutral to mildly UP, possible congestion.
AdStoK is still bullish but is losing steam, so is Entropy, indicating some difficulties going much higher.
Looking ahead: If 812.50 is passed, the target will be 827-829 (Fib + MM), otherwise 797 - 800 will be tested again.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
Entropy is showing signs of bottoming up, and AdStoK could very slowly building a "U" shape pattern, so RUT could creep slowly to 843 over the next few weeks.
There could however be some hesitation around this 812.50 key level first, so we need this level to be passed to confirm this scenario. One cannot indeed discard another scenario if 812.50 keeps holding... which is a Fib down formation with a 750 target.

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 28th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: mildly UP to UP, until resistance is truly tested.

60mins: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.

NDX remains bullish and the 2125 target is now in sight. There is a resistance around 2094 (MM) on the way though, and shorter times frames look more congested.
In case of some profit taking, no substantial retracement, but NDX could hit 2078 - 2080.

Daily: mildly UP to UP
Simple copy/paste from yesterday: "NDX is very bullish and should therefore carry on its ride, although possibly bumpy, to 2125.
One must keep an eye on MM 'stall' level at 2094. No clear Fib target in sight, so we can only rely on MM levels for the time being."

Weekly: mildly UP to UP
No change in direction until AdStoK line meet, but significance level is low at this time frame, so this is nothing more than a background information.
One can probably anticipate increasing difficulty in reaching the strong MM level at 2125.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 28th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (also 60mins to an extent)
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: Neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion. Check 153.50 key level.

60mins: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.

AdStoK is fairly bullish but overbought, and Entropy is picking up a little again. The major resistance level is however now lower, indicating a probable narrower trading range, or even a turnaround in the next couple of days. Key level remains 153.50

Daily: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.
AdStoK and Entropy are both stabilising, and AdStoK lines are about to cross. Possible congestion to small increase to 153.50 in the short term. AdStoK lines should give us clues on direction in a couple of days.
One should note that the current resistance level at 150 is still in place.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator is still hesitant, but it is likely that highs will be tested. Entropy is slowly looking better, and the AdStoK white line is clearly showing the "U" shape indicating recovery at least until lines cross.
This time frame is not the dominant one, which is visible with the Swing indicator finding difficult to adapt to the high volatility environment we've had lately.