Thursday, January 31, 2008

Market Snapshot for NDX - Jan 31st 2008

cf. RUT post below

Market Snapshot for SPY - Jan 31st 2008

cf. RUT post below

Market Outlook RUT for Jan 31st '08

Dominant TF: 60mins taking over, Daily declining
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Cycles: unreliable (too trendy)
Market Direction: volatile, lower
Position (60mins): short

A lot of volatility and disappointment on that rate cut, now what next?

60mins: pessimistic
RUT reached Fib target on Fed announcement then reversed quickly. The negative sentiment has been prevailing so no surprise at all in fact. RUT can now try and find support around 693, however the MM pivot level at 687.5 is stronger. MTFS and Entropy are also pointing downward. The MTFS green line is still high enough to cushion the downward movement, so no free fall in sight.
The Swing indicator is Down, but is too steep to be regarded as stable right now.

Daily: upward retracement lacking steam
We saw quite some time ago a MTFS crossover that wasn't lookig too good, so we shouldn't be surprised if the recovery is now stalling. Despite yesterday's reversal, there is no downward pressure just yet, so we have to wait for the pattern to develop fully over the next few days. For the time being, we should see some congestion with a lower bias.

Weekly: back to lows...?
The week ended on a red bar, bearish looking MTFS and Entropy. What more can i say. If MTFS had shown a green line holding up high while the white line drops sharply, one would have likely had a recovery potential, but this figure is somewhat bearish. Having said that, there may be an upward retracement (if/when MTFS white line turns around) and a probable congestion in the [625 - 687] trading range indicated by Entropy bottoming out.