Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Market Update - Nov 25th '09

ES hit 1095 briefly, which served as a test for the 1093 level mentioned recently. ES is now clearly testing the top of the range, therefore aiming at 1109. As we generally go with the flow, we have to assume it will try and breakout to go and touch the 1125 level, which would also be a channel high on the daily chart. We'll update the scenario later on. We first have to break current highs, which is in no way obvious.

TF is maybe providing more clues, with a test level around 593 which could send prices back down to recent lows. We do notice that TF is following Fib patterns very precisely on the 60mins chart. If broken, TF may test 598 or even aim for the 606 area. We however believe it will stay congested for now until it is ready for descent (daily/weekly)

EURUSD: on the rise again, and aiming for the strong resistance level (1.5015). Yet, it should lose steam and only a breakout situation to 1.513 could affect the scenario. We are still in the same "hesitation territory" visible in longer time frames, which should translate into congestion for at least a few more weeks until the weekly pattern is completed.

( posted late 8 AM UK )

PS: It must be noted once again that this method is adequate for swing trading as it captures energy level in a quantum way. It does not always capture volatility as the outlook is generally 3 bars ahead, sometimes down to 1, sometimes as long as 5. It is therefore impossible to cover a full day using a 60mins chart, and mid-day updates are too time consuming at the moment. Thanks for your understanding.