Saturday, November 03, 2007

Market Outlook RUT for Nov 5th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily.
Swings: DN-DN-UP
Market direction: mildly down, looking for support.

Again, strong correlation sith SPY. Volatile environment.Swings are DN again, indicating we are hovering around a key level.

60mins: congestion to down.
MTFS and Entropy indicate a possible bottom, but there is still some negative entropy to dissipate in a narrow trading range. RUT may also try to look for a stronger support a little lower.

Daily: Congestion with downward bias - trading range.
We seem to have a Fib pattern forming, but 791 could hold as MTFS is congested with a downward bias. Entropy is however pointing down, so one could see RUT going lower to 781 (Fib + MM level).

Weekly: congestion to mildly down
Entropy is looking good, but MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with a very slight upward bias. We can note that we are again very close to a key level at this time frame with the Swing indicator oscillating frequently.

Market Outlook SPY for Nov 5th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins, Daily and low intraday time frames
Swings: DN-DN-UP
Market direction: Congestion with lower bias, but check levels and new pattern forming.

60mins: congestion to mildly up.
MTFS lines have joined on strong Fib + MM support. Entropy seems to have bottomed but is very low, and the MTFS green line is bearish indicating current recovery may be short-lived. Since the 150 support level is quite strong, congestion is likely.

Daily: down, but possible congestion.
There seems to be a Fib expansion pattern forming, but the MTFS is not very bearish, hence the lower part of the [150-156] range is still valid.

Weekly: probable congestion - Very low significance level, due to MTFS divergence.
Entropy is looking OK, but for the time being MTFS indicates continuation of this situation of congestion with an upward bias. Watch for divergence and possible double-top.

Market Outlook NDX for Nov 5th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: still mildly up.

The week ended on a quiet note, and little changed from previous day's snapshots..

60mins: Mildly up, congestion.
As expected, we've had a bounce around 2190. MTFS is in an incomplete V shape pattern indicative of a possible upward bias. The green line has dropped from latest highs. This limits the upward potential in the short term, to ~2220 first.

Daily: Congestion to Up, slow down approaching strong resistance level.
Apart the presence of a yellow bar, nothing much has changed, so NDX should creep up to previous highs, albeit considerably slower in comparison to what we've seen in the last couple of months. The rise may stall, but certainly no strong retracement in sight.

Weekly: congestion to mildly UP - Low significance level.
Entropy is looking very good, but MTFS has difficulty adapting to such a strong run (U-shape pattern is not closing). It seems we're entering a period of congestion, at least compared to the seemingly unstoppable bull run we've had. Looking at MTFS, no retracement in sight just yet, but we have to watch how this divergence develops.