Thursday, March 20, 2008

Market Snapshot for RUT - Mar 20th 2008

cf. NDX post below

Market Snapshot for SPY - Mar 20th 2008

cf. NDX post below

Market Outlook NDX for Mar 20th '08

Dominant TF: 60mins then Daily. Weekly chart coming back too.
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Market Direction (Daily): congestion to down
Cycles: high noise level
Position (60mins): neutral to negative delta. short.

Three trading days agao, i said: "The trend is still down, and technically the incapacity to pass 1750 does not bode well for the next few days and weeks". It seems to apply again today, yet we'll give a chance to recent measures like the Fed cut to sieve through the economy and markets.

We'll keep a look at other correlated market as well as EURUSD. The € is at last showing signs of abating a bit.

60mins: trading range for now
The Entropy gave us a good indication again, along with the reversal of MTFS. NDX indeed did find have momentum to break the strong MM level (1750) and the first Fib target (1755). NDX could find support at the bottom of the range, although most probably higher.
We notice Swing legs being quite steep, so those interested in swing trading should move to a lower time frame, always keeping in mind the context provided by higher time frames, i.e. dominant down trend.

Daily: down, but looking for support
It is always risky to read too much into charts, but MTFS is trying to point upward and Entropy is showing less negative pressure. It may not be enough to build a support level just yet though.
I would suggest taking cues from other time frames for the time being, keeping in mind the bias is still down.

Weekly: again and again, it is bearish...
It is almost a pity this is not the dominant time frame, as this is certainly the easiest to read: trend is down.
To mitigate this scenario though, one can see that Entropy is extremely low (EntBin = -5) so a bounce is quite possible in the near future. We may have to wait for ENtropy to finally bottom out and then for the completion of the MTFS pattern. Until then, the bias is certainly down.