Tuesday, April 29, 2008

Market Snapshot ER2 (RUT) for Apr 29th '08

cf. NDX post below for guidance

Market Snapshot for SPY - Apr 29th 2008

cf. NDX post below for guidance

Market Outlook NDX for Apr 29th '08

Dominant TF: Daily.
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market Direction (Daily): up overall, but volatile still.
Cycles: good fit, and long cycle peak detected
Position (60mins): flat

NDX is crawling up... aiming unconvincingly at 2000. A pause looks more and more likely.

60mins: overbought, trying to go higher
NDX has passed 1900 and is trying to go higher. MTFS is however overbought and if we look at a lower time frame (15mins has a higher significance level), we have a strong resistance in the higher 1930s. A retracement is possible in the short term (cycle peak).

Daily: wavy up...
No major change since last post: NDX is on its way to 2000. The MTFS pattern is now confirmed and should continue until lines meet again somewhere near overbought level. We however notice tht the white line is peaking and EntBin is very high, hence NDX could possibly take a pause in the short term. In the worst case, NDX would test channel lows or back to the 1875 pivot level.

Weekly: a pause on the way up is likely
Like on lower time frames, it is now visible that NDX is aiming at 2000 (MM + Fib). We can however notice that this could leave the bearish MTFS incomplete. While possible, this scenario remains unlikely and a consolidation seems necessary at some point. We'll therefore check for a Fib/MM level (1950?) for a retracement which will help complete the MTFS pattern.
As said earlier, the 2000 level will be key to market direction for the rest of the year.
(May call spreads above 2000 are quite safe)