Tuesday, July 01, 2008

Market Outlook ER2 (RUT) for Jul 1st '08

cf. SPY post below for guidance (Fib/MM levels are specific though)

Market Snapshot for NDX - Jul 1st 2008

cf. SPY post below for guidance

Market Outlook SPY for Jul 1st '08

Dominant TF: weekly, daily, with 60mins closely behind
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market Direction (daily): further erosion
Position (60mins): short

On NDX yesterday, prices kept on drifting as anticipated and end quarter window dressing had little effet on the on going trend. Support will have to be found lower probably on 1820 ... or lower.

Back to SPY now: Last post was unclear on a support level and anticipated SPY going lower (target 128). To be honest, i thought the 130 area would contain prices in a trading range for at least a short while. It seems SPY is now aiming at 125 again.

Note on EURUSD: we're near the upper boundary of the same trading range, which could certainly breakout sending US$ to new lows. We'll have to watch carefully the market reaction to the BCE decision this week.

60mins: aiming at 125, but stall level right here
MM support level has dropped to 125, with a stall level around 128, i.e. near yesterday's lows.
MTFS and Entropy point for a moderate recovery potential (EntBin is very low), so we may have a up day or some congestion, without any major change in the down trend visible just yet.

Daily: lower
No change from last post:
Bars are still red, and every indicator is somewhat bearish so support will have to be found lower, to a possible 100% fib retracement, i.e. close to year lows.
Our target is MM stall level just above 128. We also have a Fib target in the same area, then MM support at 125.

Weekly: crucial time...
No change from last post:
The retracement is now in place with a Swing indicator now firmly down. We are therefore eagerly waiting to see where the support level will be...
This is indeed a crucial configuration as the last pivot point (144.30) is now developing into a full downward Fib pattern with a 125 target level at first (could go lower!!).
MTFS indeed looks more and more like a failed recovery pattern, confirming this scenario mentioned several times over the last couple of weeks.