Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Market update - Jan 21st '09

The 1.294 support level is still valid technically even if it has been penetrated right to the 76% retracement level on the daily chart. Levels often do not concur exactly, hence a target zone more than a target price as such.
Now, EURUSD found some stamina to retrace up to 1.305 possibly today, but does not show indication of going much higher then. It is likely to test 1.294 again later on, either as a support level or more likely to resume its course south.

While direction was clear, one could have expected 437 to hold again. It was a MM pivot level and a Fib target after all. The market decided otherwise, and we're now on our way to the [418-423] range, i.e. close to latest lows. Again, our picture is still more of a 'failed recovery' than a bearish picture, so we'll look at a forthcoming support level, possibly on current target, to see prices rise again.

Similarly, one would have thought ES would have stayed above 812. At this time, we may actually see that same key level tested as a resistance to then go lower again. A possible target is 787. ES is slightly more bearish than ER.

( posted 6:10AM UK - screenshots available on request )