Tuesday, December 01, 2009

Market Update - Dec 1st '09

Yesterday showed how difficult it is to publish only one report per day, particularly in a "confusion area" and taking into account this method looks roughly 2 to 3 bars ahead. ES is a perfect example with a modest pullback on test level but not enough energy to pull prices decisively away from that level.
ES therefore returned to the [1093-1095] area after hitting Fib PR1 (38.2%).

What now ? ES is still under the influence of conflicting forces, creeping up on short time frames, and congested to drifting down on longer horizons. ES could therefore aim at 1100 to 1103 even though we are still in a down leg on the daily channel and still waiting on the "Big One" on the weekly channel. Admittedly, "Big One" is vastly exaggerated, but some of us are getting impatient.

TF drifted to stall level (566) yesterday to go back to MM pivot level, yet is likely to turn south again. If anything, we appreciate that TF is easier to read than ES even though they are by and large correlated.

EURUSD is also in a confusion area somehow drifting directionless. We have notices a fairly strong support area on Fib level (~1.4985). One can follow some obvious visible patterns like highest highs, lowest lows, or switch time frames. Lower time frames seem to show a retracement on the way down, but the the range is narrowing which will lead to a breakout situation. At this very moment, return to highs (30 and 60mins) is possible.

( posted 7:20 AM UK)