Monday, March 09, 2009

Weekly Report on ES - Mar 9th to 13th '09

Obviously, ES is correlated to ER and other markets, and therefore is also going south.
Let's have a look at specific levels for this symbol.

As mentioned on previous reports, prices try and stay in a given price segment, oscillating from volatility and noise, and only a change of referential, like news about rates etc tend to make prices shift.
We are now in the [656-687] price segment and it is quite common to see the upper boundary being tested as a resistance.
If so, ES will be sent down, which is the most likely scenario in the short term. Again, news can make the scenario quickly obsolete also.
Target on the way down is in the [656-661] area, and should this fail to hold, we can already see much stronger support in the 620s.

It is preferable to have all time frames in perfect sync, but while 625 is also a likely target here, the next "stop" seems to be just below 650. Again in times of high volatility, levels can be penetrated without breaking.

Same story, and to be honest, we can't see what could stop ES from hitting 625 now.

( posted 7 AM UK )

Weekly Report on TF (aka ER) - Mar 9th to 13th '09

Markets have lost more ground last week, and to comfort the prevailing gloom and doom scenario, the Fib expansion pattern on the weekly chart has ... a negative XOP target price ! Short sellers obviously do enjoy causing a bit of panic, but let's try and be rational here.

60 mins:
The fall has at least temporarily stopped on a MM level where we saw some bounce late in the day with a few short sellers buying back positions (very low volume though).
Entropy also shows a potential bit of a reprieve even if stall level (~328) is now in sight and could be hit this coming week. In any case, there is no reason to change our scenario as long as prices stay below 375 (now strong Fib + MM resistance).

Here too, MTFS is so oversold that one can only imagine a limited bounce for now. The same 375 level is key to any change in market mood and selling pressure remains so strong that even if some buying lifts prices momentarily, the Fib expansion target (high 320s) is likely to be reached within a week or so.
While volume is good, one should probably see a high volume bar near Entropy bottom (not quite there yet) to announce a potential reversal.

The comment above is a bit of a joke, even if mathematically possible. Having said that, one can't see what would stop ER from touching stall level on low 310s within a few weeks.

( posted 7AM UK )