Friday, May 30, 2008

Market Snapshot for ER2 - May 30th 2008

cf. NDX post below for guidance.

Market Snapshot for SPY - May 30th 2008

cf. NDX post below for guidance.

Market Outlook NDX for May 30th '08

Dominant TF: 60mins (and lower TFs!)
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Cycles: unreliable
Position (60mins): long to flat (profit taking)
Market Direction (Daily): congestion to upper bias

I hope some of you scored again on indications given yesterday (EURUSD target, SPY target) which could hardly be more accurate.

60mins: upper bias looking for resistance level.
MTFS has about finished its pattern, but there is some remaining upward momentum. Resistance level should now come either on current levels or eventually close to highs hit on May 19th. MM levels have changed, offering more room for NDX to rise. Having said that this move is happening too fast, and stall level is now, strange coincidence, exactly on May 19th highs.

Daily: upper bias but possible congestion
MTFS is showing congestion potential near highs, i.e. near completion of the pattern. Entropy is also weakening fast. May highs will probably be hit again soon, but it is not clear whether they can be passed in the short term.

EURUSD aiming at lower 1.54 first and possible 1.536.

Weekly: Congestion at key level, upper bias remaining.
No major change at this level:
The Fib/MM levels have been slowing down the seemingly irresistible ascension back to former highs. MTFS is still somewhat bullish and Entropy has not peaked yet. NDX may eventually keep hovering around the 2000 / 2010 level for a while, but until MTFS and Entropy actually confirm the slowdown, we will assume a "cautious" positive bias going forward.
Again, i wish to emphacise this is a key level as Fib patterns can develop both ways here, even if a downturn definitely looks unlikely.
Pivot number 4 (2050) could indeed turn into a full downward Fib pattern (target 1700), or could still be erased to take NDX back to last year's highs (>2200). Again the cautiously bullish scenario is still favoured for now and confirmation should come within weeks. Since this is not the dominant time frames, clues will certainly arise from lower time frame indicators.