Wednesday, February 04, 2009

Market update - Feb 4th '09

An error slipped in yesterday on EURUSD. Those lines were attached to a short term tick chart... sorry about that.

Back to our longer term outlook:
EUR is still aiming at a soft landing somewhere around the 1.20s. If one has gone long on this upward retracement, our immediate targets are 1.306, then 1.312 and 1.318. There is likely to be uncertainty around this range, until EURUSD breaks 1.294 again. Our scenario would on the contrary possibly fail is EURUSD passed 1.318

Same upward bias, yet a little range bound now. It is unclear whether there is enough energy left to pass Fib PR1 now, so congestion could prevail a little longer. It is recommended to either hang on and wait for clarity, or trade tick charts.

Nothing new really... Fib Exp Target1 (~836) has been hit, and ES is still creeping up higher, albeit unconvincingly. Should it find energy to reach 843, a retracement seems inevitable at some point, without however affecting long term outlook as long as prices stay above 812.

( posted 7:30 AM UK )