Monday, August 04, 2008

Weeky Outlook on ES 4th to 8th Aug '08

Dominant TF: All three
Swings: DN-UP-DN (from DN-UP-DN)
Market Direction(daily): fairly directionless, but if still long, position could be lightened. Some will be flat to reenter later.

ES entered the congestion period we anticipated last week, and could remain range bound for a while.

60mins: slowdown or soft landing on 1250 again.
MTFS indeed points for some mild erosion. The white line is about flat right on zero level and Entropy is also indicating an attempt to very slowly move upward later on.

Daily: congestion
Entropy seems to have dissipated all negative energy but is there enough to really take ES higher now? MTFS is also midly pointing up but all in all, so little energy that one could actually stay in the same congestion mode for a while.
A bounce on 1250 remains a likely scenario later on.

Weekly: Caution must be exercised.
We're definitely in presence of conflicting forces. MTFS is here also somewhat bearish with a green line still quite negative. Yet the white line tells us that the fall may be over or slowed down at least. We'll wait for the weekly bar to turn yellow, possibly this week to confirm the end of the bear mode. Until then, we have to remain cautious. Entropy has bottomed up at a low level (EntBin = -5) so a bounce is quite possible within the next few bars.
From a pure price analysis, we obviously also need our support levels [1230-1250] to hold. Shorter time frames seem reassuring in that respect.