Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 9th '07


Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: UP until...

Note that SPY is the leading symbol in our index selection (S&P500, NDX and RUT).

60mins: Neutral to mildly UP. Possible new test of current highs.

SPY is breathing a bit after a strong run to Fib and MM level.
AdStoK shows a line separation with a fairly shallow gradient of the green line. There is therefore only a little chance it goes lower right now. Entropy is also losing the accumulated energy, so it is difficult a direction going forward.
Expected range: 154.50 - 156-25

Daily: neutral to mildly UP until resistance is tested.
Entropy is still quite high, and only slowly declining. AdStoK is also showing first signs of weakness, and lines could cross today or tomorrow. We now have to watch how the market attacks this strong resistance level (July highs + MM + FIB (60mins)).
One must be careful though not to jump to conclusion and anticipate a reversal any time soon.

Weekly: mildly UP until resistance is tested.
The Swing indicator is now more firmly up, but the key swing price level is still close at this time frame.
Entropy is slowly looking better, and the trend should be at least mildly up until AdStoK lines cross.
So, for the time being, no visible change in market dynamics coming (despite expectations of a bumpy October).
One will have to keep an eye on AdStoK lines cross, as there is a chance of divergence in this indicator with lines joining at a lower level than prices (double top coming?).