Saturday, October 06, 2007

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 8th '07


Dominant TF: Weekly and Daily
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: Up until...

Reaction on jobs data was exuberant to say the least and took us by surprise, not in direction but in strength.
Note that SPY is the leading symbol in our selection of 3 indices.


60mins: Up, but pivot level then July highs must be tested.

843 was reached as expected, but certainly faster than anticipated. AdStoK and Entropy are bullish, although the AdStoK white line may show first signs of weakness soon and Entropy is statistically high above 2.
It will take at least a few bars, maybe over a day to release the accumulated energy, while possibly remaining close to this pivot level.
Note that the significance level at this time frame has dropped, so one should take cues from the daily chart for now.

Daily: UP.
AdStoK is still bullish and should carry on its bumpy ride to higher levels. The white line is now seriously overbought, so a minor retracement is possible without affecting the overall trend... until lines join...
Current resistance level at 843 is fairly strong then 860 and ultimately 875.
AdStoK's green line grows at a rate of 5% per day at the moment, so it could take at least a week before it reaches overbought level and some slowing down. The white line may however retrace and provide some relief in the meantime.

Weekly: UP
Entropy and AdStoK now show more clearly the way up to 851, 860 then maybe 875 over the next couple of weeks. The Swing indicator should also turn around any time now. The indicator has remained due to the high volatility environment we've had in the last few months.