Market Outlook NDX for Sep 19th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (or intraday < 30mins)
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: mildly UP.

60mins:
The Fed rate cut helped NDX break levels happily to pass the important 2000 MM level, to reach a Fib level close to 2040. AdStoK is quite bullish (although overbought), but while Entropy could keep growing, it may in fact peak soon.
Major resistance level is now 2062 which is higher than July highs! Some support will have to be found first, either 2031, 2016, or maybe even 2000.

Daily:
The extraordinary move we've had is not quite accompanied by a stronger Entropy. The rate cut should however translate into a higher trading range now: 2000 (possibly 1980) to 2040 (possibly 2055).

Weekly:
Even after this rate cut, there is only some minor upward bias left (Entropy), so it could just as well be a return to the bullish trend than a double top...
This time frame is not very significant right now, so one should take cues from the daily chart for now.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 19th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (and intraday < 30mins)
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: UP.

60mins:
The Fed rate cut helped SPY break the 150 level to now head toward 155 / 156, with a possible pause on the way at 153.
AdStoK turned very positive, so did Entropy.
Should there be some profit taking, 150 (maybe 149.50) would be tested for support.

Daily:
The Fed cut does not eliminate market risk (subprime etc), and should therefore not be interpreted as a "pass" to new highs.
AdStoK is obviously more bullish but it may take some time to see the underlying trend join the party. One should wait for 150 tested for support to see higher prices.
Should we see some profit taking, SPY will find support around 150, otherwise 147. The possible range is therefore: 150 (maybe 147) to 153 and 155.50 (July highs).
Considering the upward bias, the upper boundary of this range should be tested soon.

Weekly:
The Swing indicator has not turned around yet (due to high vol.), but the chart certainly looks bullish. Negative entropy should be exhausted to be fully reassured though.

Market Outlook MID for Sep 19th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (or intraday < 30mins)
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: mildly UP to UP.

60mins:
The Fed rate cut helped MID break levels happily to pass the important 875 MM level.
AdStoK turned very positive, so did Entropy.
MID can now reach 890 to 895.

Daily:
AdStoK is obviously more bullish but it may take some time to see the underlying trend join the party. One should wait for 877 to be clearly passed and possible tested for support to see higher prices.
Should we see some profit taking, or continuation of the trading range, MID will find support around 855, then 843.
On the up side, 890 then 906.

Weekly:
The Swing indicator has not turned around yet, and weekly bars are still yellow, indicating we are not back to bullish mode just yet. Having said that, volatility is the main cause for this hesitation, and once 875 / 880 level is clearly broken, MID will be heading towards previous highs and maybe up to 937.

Technical look into the Swing indicator (ADVANCED)

--- ADVANCED TOPIC ---

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 18th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: DN-DN-DN
Market direction: Mildly Down.

60mins:
The recovery stopped close to Fib PR2 (61.8%) at 787 and settled just above MM pivot at 781, after hovering within a fairly tight range for a few days. AdStoK is neutral to bearish, and Entropy also mildly negative.
After the Fed announcement today, it can certainly go both ways, but there is a neutral to negative bias ahead of the news.
Return to 773 then 766 is possible.

Daily:
AdStoK gives us some indication of a slight negative bias, but nothing clear really, which is understandable in this trading range ahead of a much anticipated news. Entropy is however down and negative. The market is driven by levels right now, and thus will probably move to the next fractal level upon the Fed announcement.
Possible range: 765 to 800, then 812.5 on the up side, 750 on the down side. 750 and 812 are KEY LEVELS in both directions.

Weekly:
Ahead of the Fed on Monday, there is some minor downward bias, but it could just as well be a return to the bullish trend after a bounce on the 750 support level.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 18th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: undetermined.

60mins:
The recovery has stalled short of the 150 level. AdStoK is weaker now, but Entropy while negative gives us no clear direction. Would there be no imminent news, the most likely scenario ahead would be a retracement to Fib PR1 (147.50), or even down to Fib and MM Pivot around 146.8
After the Fed announcement today, it can certainly go both ways, but there is some negative bias ahead of the news.

Daily:
Very slight upward bias given by AdStoK, but Entropy is so weak, it could here really go both ways, or even stay a little longer in the same trading range.
Possible range: 145 (maybe 142) to 150, then 153 and 155.50 (July highs)

Weekly:
Ahead of the Fed announcement, there is some modest upward bias left. Hopefully a direction will emerge soon enough...
One should take cues from the dominant TF which is the 60mins chart.

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 18th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: DN-UP-UP
Market direction: undetermined.

60mins:
The recovery stopped a couple of days ago on 2000 which is not a major Fib level (at this time frame), but is a major psychological MM level. NDX then fell a little to between a PR1 at 1981 and and MM intermediate level at 1984. AdStoK and Entropy are now somewhat pointing down. AdStoK is around the median zone with a negative gradient.
After the Fed announcement today, it can certainly go both ways, but there is certainly a negative bias ahead of the news.

Daily:
Would there be no imminent news, the most likely scenario ahead would be upward bias conditional to passing the resistance level. With Entropy coming down, it seems NDX will have no momentum left to break 2000, so a
Possible range: 1980 to 2025, then 2025 on the up side... or around 1945 on the down side....

Weekly:
No clear direction ahead of the Fed announcement. There is some minor upward bias left, but it could just as well be a return to the bullish trend than a double top...
This time frame is not very significant right now, so one should take cues from the 60mins chart for now.

Market Outlook MID for Sep 18th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: undetermined.

60mins:
The recovery stopped a couple of days ago on Fib PR2 (61.8%) and MID is now mildly pointing down. AdStoK is around the median zone with a negative gradient. Entropy is now also definitely negative.
After the Fed announcement today, it can certainly go both ways, but there is still a neutral to negative bias ahead of the news.

Daily:
Would there be no imminent news, the most likely scenario ahead would be congestion or trading range, with a negative bias (white line separation and negative entropy).
Possible range: 843 to 875, then 812 on the down side, for 906 on the up side.

Weekly:
No clear direction ahead of the Fed announcement. Note that there may be 2 opposite Fib patterns. The first one drawn manually gives price targets close to 800 then 750. The one calculated automatically on the contrary gives 800 then 930. We should know soon enough...

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 17th '07

Note:

The AdStoK_MTF indicator is now substituted for AdLag64StoK_MTF which is smoother, but very slightly back-adjusting. Only the last pattern over the last 64 bars is displayed.


Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: UP-DN-DN
Market direction: Neutral to Down.

60mins:
The recovery stopped close to Fib PR2 (61.8%) at 787 and settled just above MM pivot at 781, after hovering within a fairly tight range for a few days. AdStoK is neutral to bullish, but Entropy has now turned about negative.
What next now??? After the Fed announcement on Monday, it can certainly go both ways, but there is still a positive to neutral bias ahead of the news.

Daily:
Very slightly upward bias given by AdStoK, but Entropy is down and negative. The market is driven by levels right now, and thus will probably move to the next fractal level upon the Fed announcement.
Possible range: 765 to 800, then 812.5 on the up side, 750 on the down side. 750 and 812 are KEY LEVELS in both directions.

Weekly:
Ahead of the Fed on Monday, there is some minor downward bias, but it could just as well be a return to the bullish trend after a bounce on the 750 support level.

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 17th '07

Note:

The AdStoK_MTF indicator is now substituted for AdLag64StoK_MTF which is smoother, but sligtly back-adjusting. Only the last pattern over the last 64 bars is displayed.


Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: Up to Neutral.

60mins:
The recovery stopped close to Fib PR2 (61.8%) as well as MM pivot, and has been hovering within a fairly tight range for a few days. AdStoK is fairly strong, but Entropy has now turned about negative.
What next now??? After the Fed announcement on Monday, it can certainly go both ways, but there is still a positive to neutral bias ahead of the news.

Daily:
Upward bias given by AdStoK, and Entropy is still strong, even though declining a bit. The market is driven by levels right now, and thus will probably move to the next fractal level upon the Fed announcement.
Possible range: 1980 to 2025, then 2025 on the up side.

Weekly:
Ahead of the Fed on Monday, there is some minor upward bias left, but it could just as well be a return to the bullish trend than a double top...

Market Outlook MID for Sep 17th '07

Note:

The AdStoK_MTF indicator is now substituted for AdLag64StoK_MTF which is smoother, but sligtly back-adjusting. Only the last pattern over the last 64 bars is displayed.


Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: undetermined.

60mins:
The recovery stopped at Fib PR2 (61.8%) and has been hovering around 862 for a while. AdStoK is fairly strong, but Entropy has now turned about negative.
What next now??? After the Fed announcement on Monday, it can certainly go both ways, but there is still a positive to neutral bias ahead of the news.

Daily:
Very slight upward bias given by AdStoK, but Entropy is so weak, it can here really go both ways, or even stay a little longer in the same trading range.
Possible range: 843 to 875, then 812 on the down side, for 906 on the up side.

Weekly:
Ahead of the Fed on Monday, there is some minor upward bias left. Hopefully a direction will emerge soon enough...

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 17th '07

Note:

The AdStoK_MTF indicator is now substituted for AdLag64StoK_MTF which is smoother, but slightly back-adjusting. Only the last pattern over the last 64 bars is displayed.


Dominant TF: 60mins
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: undetermined.

60mins:
The recovery has stalled short of the 150 level. AdStoK is strong, but Entropy has now turned negative.
What next now??? After the Fed announcement on Monday, it can certainly go both ways, but there is a negative bias ahead of the news.

Daily:
Very slight upward bias given by AdStoK, but Entropy is so weak, it can here really go both ways, or even stay a little longer in the same trading range.
Possible range: 145 (maybe 143) to 150

Weekly:
Ahead of the Fed on Monday, there is some minor upward bias left. Hopefully a direction will emerge soon enough...