Market Outlook RUT for Oct 2nd '07

Dominant TF: Weekly & Daily
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: mildly UP. New target: 843.

60mins: Mildly UP to UP
Like for the other 2 indices, we have been suprised by market activity on breakout of 812.50 key level. AdStoK is very bullish with a crossover that came a little too early. One should wait for RUT to settle on new target (828 first)to assess the situation going forward. A slowdown is possible.

Daily: Mildly UP to UP.
AdStoK is still bullish and should carry on its bumpy ride to higher levels now that the key 812.50 level is behind us.
The next levels are 829, 843 then July highs and ultimately 875.

Weekly: mildly UP to UP
Entropy and AdStoK now show more clear the way up to 843 over the next few weeks. The Swing indicator should turn around any time now. It has so far been a good representation of the hesitations we've had in lower time frames.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 2nd '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP (!)
Market direction: Neutral to mildly UP. July highs in sight now.

60mins: mildly UP to UP, until forthcoming resistance level.
We admittedly didn't quite anticipate the breakout reaction on finally passing the 153.50 key level.
AdStoK is bullish but Entropy shows possible signes of peaking and the MM range is actually narrower, indicating a possible trading range around this new 154.50 level.
A Fib pattern has reached its OP, however there is a XOP level concurring with the new MM target.
This would mean testing July highs in the coming days.

Daily: mildly UP to UP.
AdStoK and Entropy are both stabilising, which is an unusual situation for Entropy. One can only expect continuation of the same situation, i.e. slow steady increase, at least until AdStoK lines cross. Entropy at 3 is historically very high, so a slowdown (rate of increase) is almost certain.
One should note that the current resistance level at 150 is still in place, indicating some difficulty going higher (at least for now).

Weekly: mildly UP to UP
The Swing indicator has finally turned UP!
Entropy is slowly looking better, and the AdStoK white line is clearly showing the "U" shape indicating recovery at least until lines cross.
So, for the time being, no visible change in market dynamics coming (despite expectations of a bumpy October).
One will have to check where lines cross, as there is a chance of divergence in this indicator.

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 2nd '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP, until 2125 resistance is truly tested. Probable slowdown then.

60mins: mildly up to up, until new resistance level at 2125.
While our outlook was correct, we have been fooled by NDX on 'stall' MM level. NDX will now hit 2125 and we have to now see what comes next. NDX is in an overall very bullish trend, indicating studying higher time frames.

Daily: mildly UP. Possible slowdown on coming resistance, due to extreme overbought situation.
NDX is so strong it could go beyond 2125. Entropy is close to 5 which is a very high level at this time frame, hence a slow down is likely after it peaks. AdStoK is at a crossover point, however one must be cautious is extreme overbought situation and wait for a steeper gradient to leave overbought zone, hence some significant retracement to confirm a slowdown. In the meantime, no visible change in direction ahead.

Weekly: mildly UP to UP
AdStoK lines should soon meet, but significance level is low at this time frame, so this is nothing more than a background information.
One can check for a possible change in dynamics on AdStoK line crossover, which could happen around the much anticipated 2125 level.

Market Outlook RUT for Oct 1st '07

Dominant TF: weekly & 60mins to an extent
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP. Key 812.50 level still in place.

60mins: Mildly down. Possible congestion in [800-812] trading range
It seems like the market has now given up on the 812.50 key level, and now is momentarily pausing.
A new support must be found lower (Fib pattern forming).

Daily: neutral to mildly UP, probable congestion.
AdStoK is still bullish but is certainly losing steam, so is Entropy, indicating some difficulties going much higher.
Looking ahead: If 812.50 is finally passed, the target will be 827-829 (Fib + MM), otherwise 797 - 800 will be tested again. Retracement is however likely, without even impacting the overall trend.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
Entropy is showing signs of bottoming up, and AdStoK could very slowly building a "U" shape pattern, so RUT could creep slowly to 843 over the next few weeks.
There could however be some hesitation around this 812.50 key level first, so we need this level to be passed to confirm this scenario. One cannot indeed discard another scenario if 812.50 keeps holding... which is a Fib down formation with a 750 target.

Market Outlook SPY for Oct 1st '07

Dominant TF: Daily (also 60mins to an extent)
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: Neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion. Check 153.50 key level.

60mins: neutral. Probable congestion.
AdStoK and Entropy are both indicating congestion with negative bias. SPY is likely to remain in a trading range, and possibly retrace a bit if the market gives up on the 153.50 key level.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.
AdStoK and Entropy are both stabilising, and AdStoK lines are about to cross. Possible congestion to small increase to 153.50 in the short term. AdStoK lines should give us clues on direction in a couple of days.
One should note that the current resistance level at 150 is still in place, indicating some difficulty going higher.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator is still hesitant, but it is likely that highs will be tested. Entropy is slowly looking better, and the AdStoK white line is clearly showing the "U" shape indicating recovery at least until lines cross.
So, for the time being, no visible change in market dynamics coming (despite expectations of a bumpy October).
This time frame is not the dominant one, which is visible with the Swing indicator finding difficult to adapt to the high volatility environment we've had lately.

Market Outlook NDX for Oct 1st '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP, until resistance is truly tested. Probable congestion.

60mins: neutral with possible congestion to minor retracement.
NDX remains somewhat bullish and the 2125 target certainly looks close enough. There is however congestion around 2094 (MM stall level on shorter time frames). Entropy also turned negative, and shorter times frames look more congested.
In case of some retracement, NDX could test 2078 - 2080 first.

Daily: mildly UP. Congestion, due to extreme overbought situation.
NDX looks very bullish and should therefore carry on its ride, although possibly bumpy, to 2125.
One must keep an eye on MM 'stall' level at 2094. AdStoK have now joined in extreme overbought territory, Entropy could peak soon, so one has to watch for a possible congestion to minor profit taking. No change in trend though.

Weekly: mildly UP to UP
AdStoK lines should soon meet, but significance level is low at this time frame, so this is nothing more than a background information.
One can probably anticipate increasing difficulty in reaching the strong MM resistance level at 2125.

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 28th '07

Dominant TF: none
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP. Key 812.50 level still in place.

60mins: neutral to mildly Up. Possible congestion.
The major 812.50 resistance level is still valid but the AdStoK recovery ("V" shape pattern) is now about completed with still some upward momentum in store. RUT's behaviour around this key level is crucial to forthcoming direction (will this resistance be broken today?).

Daily: neutral to mildly UP, possible congestion.
AdStoK is still bullish but is losing steam, so is Entropy, indicating some difficulties going much higher.
Looking ahead: If 812.50 is passed, the target will be 827-829 (Fib + MM), otherwise 797 - 800 will be tested again.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
Entropy is showing signs of bottoming up, and AdStoK could very slowly building a "U" shape pattern, so RUT could creep slowly to 843 over the next few weeks.
There could however be some hesitation around this 812.50 key level first, so we need this level to be passed to confirm this scenario. One cannot indeed discard another scenario if 812.50 keeps holding... which is a Fib down formation with a 750 target.

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 28th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: mildly UP to UP, until resistance is truly tested.

60mins: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.
NDX remains bullish and the 2125 target is now in sight. There is a resistance around 2094 (MM) on the way though, and shorter times frames look more congested.
In case of some profit taking, no substantial retracement, but NDX could hit 2078 - 2080.

Daily: mildly UP to UP
Simple copy/paste from yesterday: "NDX is very bullish and should therefore carry on its ride, although possibly bumpy, to 2125.
One must keep an eye on MM 'stall' level at 2094. No clear Fib target in sight, so we can only rely on MM levels for the time being."

Weekly: mildly UP to UP
No change in direction until AdStoK line meet, but significance level is low at this time frame, so this is nothing more than a background information.
One can probably anticipate increasing difficulty in reaching the strong MM level at 2125.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 28th '07

Dominant TF: Daily (also 60mins to an extent)
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: Neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion. Check 153.50 key level.

60mins: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.
AdStoK is fairly bullish but overbought, and Entropy is picking up a little again. The major resistance level is however now lower, indicating a probable narrower trading range, or even a turnaround in the next couple of days. Key level remains 153.50

Daily: neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.
AdStoK and Entropy are both stabilising, and AdStoK lines are about to cross. Possible congestion to small increase to 153.50 in the short term. AdStoK lines should give us clues on direction in a couple of days.
One should note that the current resistance level at 150 is still in place.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator is still hesitant, but it is likely that highs will be tested. Entropy is slowly looking better, and the AdStoK white line is clearly showing the "U" shape indicating recovery at least until lines cross.
This time frame is not the dominant one, which is visible with the Swing indicator finding difficult to adapt to the high volatility environment we've had lately.

Market Outlook RUT for Sep 27th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & weekly
Swings: UP-UP-DN
Market direction: neutral to mildly UP. Key 812 level still in place.

60mins: neutral to mildly Up
The major 812.50 resistance level is still there and the AdStoK recovery ("V" shape pattern) seems to stall before completion (lines crossing). Entropy is also peaking. Consequently, probable congestion to mild upward bias ahead. 812 remains the key level for RUT's forthcoming direction.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP, possible congestion.
AdStoK is somewhat bullish but is losing steam, so is Entropy, indicating some difficulties going much higher.
One has to first wait how RUT behaves around this key 812 level (head & shoulder?). If 812 is passed, the target will be 827-829 (Fib + MM), otherwise 797 - 800 will be tested again.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
Entropy is showing signs of bottoming up, and AdStoK could very slowly building a "U" shape pattern, so RUT could creep slowly to 843 over the next few weeks.
There could however be some hesitation around this 812 key level first, so we need this level to be passed to confirm this scenario. One cannot indeed discard another scenario if 812.50 keeps holding... which is a Fib formation with a 750 target.

Market Outlook SPY for Sep 27th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily
Swings: UP-DN-DN
Market direction: Neutral to mildly UP. Possible congestion.

60mins: neutral to mildly UP
AdStoK is showing signs of a recovery to 154.70 or even 156. One must just check for possible weakening of Entropy, and the major resistance level is now lower, indicating a probable narrower trading range.

Daily: neutral to mildly UP
AdStoK and Entropy are both weakening, and AdStoK lines are about to cross. Possible congestion to small increase to 153.50 in the short term. AdStoK lines should give us clues on direction in a couple of days.

Weekly: neutral to mildly UP
The Swing indicator is still hesitant, but it is likely that highs will be tested. Entropy is slowly looking better, and the AdStoK white line is clearly showing the "U" shape indicating recovery at least until lines cross.
This time frame is not the dominant one, which is visible with the Swing indicator finding difficult to adapt to the high volatility environment we've had lately.

Market Outlook NDX for Sep 27th '07

Dominant TF: Daily
Swings: UP-UP-UP
Market direction: mildly UP to UP, until resistance is truly tested.

60mins: neutral to mildly UP.
Same as yesterday, NDX remains bullish and the 2125 target is now in sight. There is a resistance around 2094 (MM) on the way though, and shorter times frames look more congested.
In case of some profit taking, no substantial retracement, but NDX could hit 2076 - 2078.

Daily: mildly UP to UP
Simple copy/paste from yesterday: "NDX is very bullish and should therefore carry on its ride, although possibly bumpy, to 2125.
One must keep an eye on MM 'stall' level at 2094. No clear Fib target in sight, so we can only rely on MM levels for the time being."

Weekly: mildly UP to UP
No change in direction until AdStoK line meet, but significance level is low at this time frame, so this is nothing more than a background information.
One can probably anticipate increasing difficulty in reaching the strong MM level at 2125.