Market Outlook NDX for Dec 24th '07

Interesting witching day, interesting friday...

Short term target 2125, but will probably not go much higher.
Trading range scenario is still there for daily time frame.

Market Outlook RUT for Dec 21st '07

Market Outlook SPY for Dec 21st '07

Market Outlook NDX for Dec 21th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins (and lower)
Swings: UP-DN-UP (from DN-DN-UP)
Cycles: long cycle turning up - poor fit - low significance level
Market Direction:

As a reminder: market direction above is always based on the daily time frame, even if 60mins is the dominant time frame.
We have to accept in such case that the daily time frame may be more difficult to read.
Secondly, provided direction is given for 3 to 5 bars, sometimes more. On the 60 mins chart, a change in dynamics may occur during the course of the day.
Users will obviously adapt to dominant time frames at the time (5 and 10 mins yesterday)

60mins: up
Fib PR1 near 2060 passed late in the day, but it is probably an effect typical of witching days. It will go higher to the next level: 2074 or even 2090.

Daily: congestion to down
Despite yesterday's up day, we shall remain cautius it could be short-lived. The 60mins chart is certainly more significant (91%) but at 77% the down pressure expressed by MTFS and Entropy cannot be discarded.
Opposing situation should in the short term favour the 60mins chart which is the dominant time frame, but congestion is likely at this time frame.
NB: One can again notice an MM octave (i.e. 8 sublevels between 2000 and 2125), so levels will be marked at 2031 and 2062 and 2093.

Weekly: Check channel boundary
While significance level is low, this mostly affects MTFS. We can still notice that NDX has touched and bounced from the lower part of its channel, but the weekly bar is still red. Caution should be exercised at these levels. We would be in trouble if 2000 would break...

Market Outlook RUT for Dec 20th '07

Dominant TF: Daily, 60mins as well as lower time frames
Swings: UP-DN-DN (from UP-DN-DN)
Cycles: up - good fit - average to good significance
Market Direction: congestion with a lower bias, but caution on this key 740 level

We can see opposing MTFS patterns with the same significance level, indicating likely congestion

60 mins: up to Fib PR1, but then what...?
Some lethargic revovery which should crawl to Fib PR1 (almost hit it late in the day), but as we have seen recently, the MTFS crossover is indicative of a 'failing recovery' pattern. RUT should therefore not go much higher.
750 has been tested during the course of the day, and could tested again.

daily: trading range is likely, but support must be confirmed.
Again, no change from yesterday:
MTFS and Entropy are again weakening further. We have the final confirmation of the failed recovery pattern mentioned about 2 weeks ago. There are no signs of a recovery (except for the cycle indicator) so RUT should fluctuate within the lower part of the [750-780] trading range. Should volatility increase, the range can be [740-790] .
NB: Cycles are the least reliable indicators in our toolset, and can only help determining turning points when all indicators point in the same direction, which is not the case at the moment.

weekly: Same trading range [750-875] with lower bias. Caution must be exercised on key level.
Swing is down and MTFS and Entropy are certainly not looking too good. One should remain VERY cautious on these levels. A market fall on level breakout is a scenario which cannot be discarded.

Market Outlook SPY for Dec 20th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily
Swing: DN-DN-UP (from UP-DN-UP)
Cycles: up - good fit - low to average significance
Market Direction: No change in overall direction just yet, but a support must be found soon

Swings oscillate a lot on all 3 charts, indicating a key level nearby.

60mins: congestion to only moderatly up
MTFS and Entropy indicate congestion to a trading range on this triple witching day. Slight upward bias.

Daily: support has been hit but congestion is likely, no excessive optimism just yet.
Same as the day before:
Bar is still red, MTFS and Entropy are not looking fantastic, so we have to wait for the support to be confirmed. MTFS lines being in median territory, there should be any major pressure either way, direction coming from line gradients.

Weekly: Congestion & Volatility
MTFS is unreadable because of the low significance level, hence one should not pay too much attention to the lines down gradients.
Swing is oscillating again indicating we might be close to a key level at this point in time. Caution should therefore be exercised.

Market Outlook NDX for Dec 20th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins (and lower)
Swings: UP-DN-UP (from DN-DN-UP)
Cycles: long cycle turning up - low significance level
Market Direction: No strong rebound on 2000... NDX could go either way...

Again, it is more fun on 5 and 10mins time frames. Users of the technique generally select 2 or 3 time frames among 6 to determine the best trading environment.

60mins: directionless, slight upper bias
A priori nothing much to expect today but surprises are always possible on witching days.
After finding an intraday support at 2016, indicators point for a slight upward bias, aiming at crawling to Fib PR1.

Daily: congestion to down
We would like to be optimistic after 2000 has been hit, but swing is down, bars are red, MTFS and Entropy have negative gradients, so we'll have to wait a bit. 2000 looks strong enough for now, so congestion is likely.
One may also notice an MM octave (i.e. 8 sublevels between 2000 and 2125), so levels will be marked at 2131 and 2162.


Weekly: Check channel boundary
While significance level is low, this mostly affects MTFS. We can still notice that NDX is touching the lower part of its channel, and the weekly bar is red. Caution should be exercised at these levels. We would be in trouble if 2000 would break...

A little break...

Not a bad time to take a break and enjoy quality time with the family.
There will therefore be no posting in the next 2 weeks unless some exceptional market move warrants it.

Please contact me however if you need an update or advice mailed to you.

cheers to all,
bv

Market Outlook RUT for Dec 19th '07

Dominant TF: Daily, 60mins as well as lower time frames
Swings: UP-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Cycles: up - average fit - low significance
Market Direction: congestion with a lower bias, but caution on this key 740 level

Similar situation as SPY.

60 mins: Key level [740-750] needs to be confirmed
The market did not allow RUT to venture dangerously below 740, and then a good recovery late in the day after Entropy bottomed out.
Like for SPY, the MTFS crossover is not too exciting, so one would need a support level like 750 to be confirmed first.

daily: trading range is likely, but support must be confirmed.
No change from yesterday:
MTFS and Entropy are again weakening further. We have the final confirmation of the failed recovery pattern mentioned about 2 weeks ago. There are no signs of a recovery so RUT should fluctuate within the lower part of the [750-780] trading range. Should volatility increase, the range can be [740-790]

weekly: Same trading range [750-875] with lower bias. Caution must be exercised on key level.
Swing is down and MTFS and Entropy are certainly not looking too good. 740 is Fib PR2 (61.8%). RUT has always bounced on PR2 in the last 2 years, but one should remain VERY cautious still.

Market Outlook SPY for Dec 19th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins & Daily
Swing: UP-DN-UP (from DN-DN-DN)
Cycles: up - average fit - low significance
Market Direction: No change in overall direction just yet, but a support must be found soon

Swings turned up on 60mins and weekly charts, indicating a key level nearby.

60mins: congestion to only moderatly up
Like NDX, bears aimed at testing 143.75 and almost got there. The Low EntBin at the bottom gives good recovery potential but the MTFS crossowver is messy, indicating there could be a slowdown before going higher.

Daily: support has been hit but congestion is likely, no excessive optimism just yet.
Bar is still red, MTFS and Entropy are not looking fantastic, so we have to wait for the support to be confirmed. MTFS lines being in median territory, there should be any major pressure either way, direction coming from line gradients.

Weekly: Congestion & Volatility
MTFS is unreadable because of the low significance level, hence one should not pay too much attention to the lines down gradients.
Swing is oscillating again indicating we might be close to a key level at this point in time.

Market Outlook NDX for Dec 19th '07

Dominant TF: 60mins (and lower)
Swings: UP-DN-UP (from DN-DN-UP)
Cycles: long cycle turning up - low to avg significance level
Market Direction: No strong rebound on 2000

Again, it is more fun on 5 and 10mins time frames. Users of the technique generally select 2 or 3 time frames among 6 to determine the best trading environment.

60mins: No strong rebound on 2000.
After testing stall level early in the day, traders pushed the market down to 2000. However bears momentarily left their position after a quick skirmish on support level.
EntBin was at -3 at the bottom on 2000 but MTFS lines didn't cross in a "clean" way. NDX should stay in the same range and possibly test a support level again (2016?)

Daily:
2000 has been hit, but what next...? I'm afraid we have to wait a few more days (i.e. after triple witching). Like for the 60mins chart, we cannot expect any strong rebound.

Weekly: Check channel boundary
While significance level is low, this mostly affects MTFS. We can still notice that NDX is touching the lower part of its channel, and the weekly bar is red. Caution should be exercised at these levels.

Market Outlook RUT for Dec 18th '07

Dominant TF: Daily, 60mins as well as lower time frames
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-UP-DN)
Cycles: up - average fit - average significance
Market Direction: congestion with a lower bias, but caution on this key 740 level


60 mins: Key level [740-750]
MTFS and Entropy are still pointing lower on this key level.
This support level should be fought, but no significant rebound expected before negative entropy is exhausted.
There is a support level at 734, but more generally: breaking 740 would be "dangerous".

daily: trading range is likely, but support must be confirmed.
No change from yesterday:
MTFS and Entropy are again weakening further. We have the final confirmation of the failed recovery pattern mentioned about 2 weeks ago. IT is likely that these [740-750] levels will be be fought, and who knows whether bears or bulls will win. At the moment, only the cycle indicator points up, and we know it is not always a reliable predictor.
Trading range in the [750-780] range to [740-790]

weekly: Same trading range [750-875] with lower bias
Swing is down and RUT is certainly not looking too good. 740 is Fib PR2 (61.8%). RUT has always bounced on PR2 in the last 2 years, but one should remain very cautious still. The next strong support level is indeed much lower....