cf. SPY post below for guidance. Markets are correlated, so only minor adjustements for specific MM and Fib levels are required.
Thursday, April 10, 2008
Market Snapshot for NDX - Apr 10th 2008
Market Outlook SPY for Apr 10th '08
Dominant TF: 60mins followed by the weekly chart.
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Cycles: unreliable
Market Direction: upper bias
Position (60mins): short
Yesterday's post on RUT was correct, except maybe that retracement passed PR2 and even almost hit PR2. Just more profits overall...
Back to SPY. Last post was also correct. Same behaviour on range high, so the same pull-back was anticipated.
60mins: will MM support hold?
SPY is now down to the 50% retracement, and seems to have bounced there late in the day. MTFS is now engaged downward, so support should be found lower. SPY could therefore test 135, or even 134.
Daily: moderate retracement
With a high EntBin (=4), profit taking was expectable, but retracement should remain moderate. Since significance level is low on this time frame, we shall rather consider MM and FIb level on the 60mins chart. The bias remains upward overall.
Weekly: again, no significant change yet.
As expected, the bounce took SPY up to PR1 (38.2% retracement) and is now taking a breather. At this time frame, we only have to check how negative pressure dissipates over time. The MTFS pattern does not show any long term recovery potential just yet, but any possible down move going forward should now be cushioned. We therefore just have to be patient.
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
Market Outlook RUT for Apr 9th '08
Dominant TF: weekly and 60mins charts
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Cycles: fairly good fit but very unreliable (low signal/noise ratio)
Market Direction: same [688-719] trading range.
Position (60mins): flat to short
Options:
Short Apr760 Calls, Long Apr770 Calls,
Long Apr570 Puts, Short Apr580 Puts
Last RUT post was correct, so was NDX yesterday. RUT has been hovering near the upper range boundary, and should stay there in the near term.
EURUSD is up again but we'll still keep an eye on EURUSD key level : 1.5625
60mins: Hesitation on resistance level
MTFS is giving us a line crossover with a mild gradient. Entropy also shows a lack of steam at this level, so we may have some erosion to a possible retracement to PR1 around 706, but nothing major.
Daily: looking better but...
after a good looking recovery in the last few weeks, we're now close to this year's highs in the 720s. MTFS is not looking too bad but line separation and high Entropy indicate a likely pause or retracement coming. Nothing serious though as the green line is now confirming the recovery. Like on the 60mins chart, we can therefore expect some hesitation near range highs. In case of profit taking, we will check Fib levels for support.
Weekly: congestion to down bias
RUT is now about up to Fib PR1, and this certainly alleviates the downward pressure we've had for a few months. Yet, we'll have to wait for complete dissipation of 'bearishness' and this can still take over a month.
In the meantime, RUT should stay in the same range, hence fairly easy to trade with a conservative iron condor (see above).
Tuesday, April 08, 2008
Market Outlook NDX for Apr 8th '08
Dominant TF: 60mins with weekly chart coming back too.
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Market Direction (Daily): hesitation on resistance level
Cycles: unreliable
Position (60mins): flat, or long with tighter stops
NDX has been understandably hesitant on MM resistance level. Current levels (~1880) are key test levels for this symbol.
We'll note the same key level on EURUSD : 1.5625
60mins: undecisive
NDX has reached its target level and is more or less hovering there still. It is therefore a little difficult to project accurately what is coming next. NDX could go either way on this test level but a retracement back to ~1840 looks quite plausible in the short term.
Daily: bullish but low significance level
NDX is certainly aiming higher, even possibly back to 2000 within a few weeks. However a retracement is quite possible along the way (EntBin = 5). MTFS is now fairly positive so a pull back wouldn't attenuate the current upper bias.
Weekly: patience...
The Swing indicator is hesitating, but is still DOWN. MTFS is still moderately bearish despite the bounce in the last 2 to 3 weeks. Again, we have to see completion of the MTFS pattern and dissipation of negative pressure in the market.
NDX has now reached PR1 (~1880) exactly as anticipated, but the MTFS pattern should certainly prevent NDX from going higher for now. It seems a pause or a retracement is inevitable. The 2000 level will later on be a lot more determinant for future direction.
Sunday, April 06, 2008
Market Snapshot for RUT - Apr 7th 2008
cf. SPY post below for guidance. Levels are specific, but dynamics are similar for correlated symbols.
Market Snapshot for NDX - Apr 7th 2008
cf. SPY post below for guidance. Levels are specific, but dynamics are similar for correlated markets.
Market Outlook SPY for Apr 7th '08
Dominant TF: Weekly followed by 60mins.
Swings: DN-UP-DN
Cycles: good fit but not quite reliable
Market Direction: upper bias
Position: flat, some would still be long with a tighter stop
Last few days have been pretty easy. Good bounce on pivot level due to some portfolio adjustment on new quarter, and momentum taking prices to Fib + MM target.
60mins: hesitation on target level
Now that profits have been taken, we can see thatMomentum has dissipated fast on target level (MM + Fib). Only remains a slight upper bias on the MTFS indicator.
Entropy is confirming current indecision. This market may be sensitive to news, otherwise should retrace a bit in the short term (quite a strong resistance).
Daily: back to upper range boundary
SPY will test range highs in the next few days. MTFS is looking positive but significance level is very low, hence caution is required. Again, we shall keep the current upper bias into account and check SPY's behaviour on range highs for future direction. A breakout is in the cards, but it still looks too early to happen in the next few days.
Weekly: no significant change yet.
As expected, the bounce took SPY up to PR1 (38.2% retracement). This is good news and negative pressure may dissipate quicker. Yet, the MTFS pattern does not show any long term recovery potential, so we'll look at each Fib and MM resistance levels carefully. For the time being, SPY should remain within the same range (mid to upper 130s).
Friday, April 04, 2008
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
