Market Snapshot for ER2 (RUT) - Jul 7th 2008

cf. SPY post below for guidance (MM/Fib levels are symbol specific though)

Market Snapshot for NDX - Jul 7th 2008

cf. SPY post below for guidance (MM/Fib levels are symbol specific though)

Market Outlook SPY for Jul 7th '08

Dominant TF: weekly, daily, with 60mins lagging now
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market Direction (daily): further erosion, but 125 support must be watched carefully
Position (60mins): short

On NDX yesterday, prices kept on drifting as anticipated and end quarter window dressing had little effet on the on going trend. Support will have to be found lower probably around 1820 ... or lower, i.e. right down to 1750.

Back to SPY now: SPY has tried to hold on stall level, tested 125 to hover on stall level again. Drifting to the 125 attractor continued. The strong support level must now be fought...

Note on EURUSD: the strengthening of the US$ on the BCE decision only confirms the same trading range. Oil prices will be key to future direction. 3rd quarter could show some relief on pressure on oil demand. Tough times ahead nevertheless...

60mins: aiming at the 125 "attractor"
Significance level is now quite low, so one should switch to lower intraday time frame to play reaction on MM support level.

Daily: lower, close to target level
MTFS white line is showing possible congestion or even a short term bounce on key level. There is still a lot of negative pressure though so no rush to any sort of recovery.

Weekly: will 125 hold...?
As mentioned previously, this is a crucial configuration as the current Fib pattern could well develop lower. One should not panic just yet even MTFS is not looking too good. This is not a classic bearish pattern, and we may just see a fairly long congestion period if 125 holds. That level could even be momentarily penetrated. Trading may just slow down now for July and August, so it may certainly take some time before SPY turns positive again.

Market Snapshot for ER2 - Jul 3rd 2008

cf. NDX post below for guidance. MM/Fib levels are however obviously symbol specific.

Market Snapshot for SPY - Jul 3rd 2008

cf. NDX post below for guidance. MM/Fib levels are however obviously symbol specific.

Market Outlook NDX for Jul 3rd '08

Dominant TF: Daily, but would also follow 5mins or 15mins
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN), hesitation at 60mins level
Position (60mins): short, possible target in sight
Market Direction (Daily): drifting down

Yesterday's forecast for ER2 was again accurate with a "uptick" early in the day as expected, then the fall resuming its course.
About NDX, last post correctly warned on volatility in the short term (window dressing) and also anticipated a continuation of price erosion.

NB: On account of the current market situation, FREE daily snapshots will be provided for another 2 weeks.

60mins: same volatile environment: congestion with lower bias.
There is still evidently a lot of negative pressure in the market but a support could be found in current price area. Shorter time frames have higher significance levels and do point south however, so no unrealistic wishful thinking either as NDX could eventually fall to 1750.

Daily: continuation of price erosion until support level is found
Significance level is good at this time frame, where indicators are still pretty bearish. Only price patterns give us a possible support around current lows (MM stall + Fib in the 1810s) so conservative short-sellers will look at possibly taking some profit soon.

Weekly: Looking for buyers
Only a minor update from last post:
Again it seems the buyers are waiting for a support level to get back into the market (or are they on holiday already?). Bars have turned decidedly red, the Swing indicator toggled back to Down and Entropy has peaked. However MTFS despite showing a "failed recovery" pattern, is not quite indicative of a market fall just yet. We do acknowledge however that the last bars being very bearish indicate a likely lower support level although Fib L1 (~1838) may also only have been momentarily penetrated.

Since this is not the dominant time frames, we'll take cues from lower time frame indicators and we will rather focus on price patterns at this level: we will again keep in mind the last high around 2050 could turn into a full downward Fib pattern (target 1838 then 1700), or could still be erased to take NDX back to last year's highs (>2200). Again we will remain quite cautious until a pattern is confirmed over the next 3 to 6 weeks. Nothing wrong with switching to lower time frames or otherwise enjoying some holiday...

Market Snapshot for SPY - Jul 2nd 2008

cf. ER2 post below for guidance (Fib/MM levels are obviously specific though)

Market Snapshot for NDX - Jul 2nd 2008

cf. ER2 post below for guidance (MM/Fib levels are obviously specific though)

Market Outlook ER2 (RUT) for Jul 2nd '08

Dominant TF: weekly, Daily, with 60mins declining
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market Direction(daily): short
Position (60mins): short
Options (RUT): 625 or lower for July puts (625 is very likely to hold).

Yesterday's post on SPY proved correct again, with some support on stall level. It seems however that 125 acts as an attractor now.

On ER2, last post was also correct, even if the 688 level has been penetrated quicker than anticipated (i warned on increased volatility). We are certainly going through a lot of tension on EURUSD and oil prices. We are even close to danger zone.

NB: you'll notice brown dots on MM indicator now also showing MM stall levels.

60mins: lower significance level
We will therefore switch to a lower TF (15mins) to probably see a short term bounce (15mins TF) maybe up to a Fib retracement level (~700). No serious recovery in sight just yet, but we'll check for the channel breakout and the swing indicator toggling up.

Daily: lower, lower...
Obviously the bounce on yesterday's low gives some (limited) hope of a short term rebound, supported by a possible bottom on Entropy. Everything else is however still pointing south, so despite a possible congestion over the next few days, support will have to be lower.

Weekly: bearish but no panic just yet
No major change from last post. As mentioned previously, we are now seeing the development of a down Fib pattern aiming straight at MM support level (~625). Since the MTFS pattern is not so bearish, the Fib pattern can however still fail. We will therefore also look for a possible support level along the way.

Market Outlook ER2 (RUT) for Jul 1st '08

cf. SPY post below for guidance (Fib/MM levels are specific though)

Market Snapshot for NDX - Jul 1st 2008

cf. SPY post below for guidance

Market Outlook SPY for Jul 1st '08

Dominant TF: weekly, daily, with 60mins closely behind
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market Direction (daily): further erosion
Position (60mins): short

On NDX yesterday, prices kept on drifting as anticipated and end quarter window dressing had little effet on the on going trend. Support will have to be found lower probably on 1820 ... or lower.

Back to SPY now: Last post was unclear on a support level and anticipated SPY going lower (target 128). To be honest, i thought the 130 area would contain prices in a trading range for at least a short while. It seems SPY is now aiming at 125 again.

Note on EURUSD: we're near the upper boundary of the same trading range, which could certainly breakout sending US$ to new lows. We'll have to watch carefully the market reaction to the BCE decision this week.

60mins: aiming at 125, but stall level right here
MM support level has dropped to 125, with a stall level around 128, i.e. near yesterday's lows.
MTFS and Entropy point for a moderate recovery potential (EntBin is very low), so we may have a up day or some congestion, without any major change in the down trend visible just yet.

Daily: lower
No change from last post:
Bars are still red, and every indicator is somewhat bearish so support will have to be found lower, to a possible 100% fib retracement, i.e. close to year lows.
Our target is MM stall level just above 128. We also have a Fib target in the same area, then MM support at 125.

Weekly: crucial time...
No change from last post:
The retracement is now in place with a Swing indicator now firmly down. We are therefore eagerly waiting to see where the support level will be...
This is indeed a crucial configuration as the last pivot point (144.30) is now developing into a full downward Fib pattern with a 125 target level at first (could go lower!!).
MTFS indeed looks more and more like a failed recovery pattern, confirming this scenario mentioned several times over the last couple of weeks.