Dominant TF: All three, shorter time frames leading
Swings: DN-UP-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market Direction(daily): flat to long
Options (RUT): no change in outlook for August, i.e. condor outside the 625-750 range.
On ER2, last weekly post indicated exiting shorts but not going long just yet (following our time frames and market outlook). We indeed saw a bottom being confirmed and even some attempt to go higher. Looking at intraday time frames, some would understandably have gone long last week.
All in all, last post again didn't do too badly. What next now?
EURUSD: There will only be a chance of significant recovery if the US$ passes 1.5625, so fairly weak and directionless still. We'll obviously also keep an eye on oil prices and further consequences of the subprimes blunder.
60mins: no upward momentum but...
We indeed saw ER2 passing the MM pivot level briefly to hit a Fib target but there was not energy to carry prices much higher. Hitting 700 was even a bit of a stretch.
MTFS is pointing for a mild erosion and MM level turned to Strong Resistance.
There is still a vague chance that SR holds as support but this is unlikely. One would rather anticipate ER2 to find some support on a lower Fib retracement level. There is however no indication of a reversal (we don't even have a single red bar) so prices shall not reach recent lows again.
Daily: trying to move upward
Despite the early MTFS line crossover, we now have a positive outlook on ER2 with lines pointing upward. Entropy is also looking healthier now. One might have entered long last week from lower time frames (i however purposely only give a market outlook and no trading signals per se). Stops would be tightened now.
Weekly: congestion to a little bearish
For the 2rd time now, MM stall level seems to have broken the fall, and one might think that a reversal is in the cards. Yet, MTFS and Entropy look if not bearish at least congestive so one should certainly not expect a strong rebound before the negative pressure is dissipated. Furthermore, as all 3 time frames weigh equally now, the latest bounce may only be a reprieve and the Fib target around 625 can still be hit within a few weeks and without any significant exogenous shock to the market. One shall therefore remain fairly cautious as one should always be when Swings are in a DN-UP-DN configuration.
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Weeky Outlook on ER2 21st to 25th July '08
Saturday, July 19, 2008
AdMarkAn Week 14-18 July 08
Here is a copy of this week's posts on AdMarkAn:
AdMarkAn Week 14-18 July 08
Monday's post will be posted shortly.
Thursday, July 17, 2008
You will have noticed that this public blog now only publishes weekly snapshots.
Daily market snapshots are now posted on the new private Advanced Market Analysis blog (Contact me for subscription/access)
Happy trading to all...
And please don't forget my 2 cents of advice: there is also a life out there.
Monday, July 14, 2008
Weeky Outlook on ES 14th to 18th July '08
Dominant TF: Daily, Weekly, with 60mins lagging somewhat behind
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market Direction(daily): profit taking from shorts
Please read the ER2 post also.
60mins: 1250 seems to hold
We have seen ES test the 2nd Fib target during the course of the day, thanks to jitters on FANNIE MAE and FREDDIE MAC. The market would have otherwise settled on the 1st target close to MM support. One can see that 1250 is actually holding, but we have no assistance from our indicators (significance level is low at this time frame). We shall therefore like for ER2 either follow pure price patterns or switch to lower time frames for entry/exit points. The Swing indicator could toggle up during the course of the day, but we shall first focus on the current channel and a possible breakout on the upside.
Daily: Congestion. No rejoicing just yet.
MTFS lines are diverging indicating an attempt to break the fall. The early line crossover indicates a recovery attempt which has only one chance of materialising: the green line must start going up before the white line gives up. We shall therefore be careful still. Some will take profits on their shorts or portions thereof, but it is way too early to go long now. ES must now stay above 1250 for a while, and even test the level for support again to have any hope for a recovery.
Weekly: Caution must be exercised.
We have a Fib target level here similar to the one on the 60mins chart. We can anticipate further fighting on this level but the overall mood remains bearish. Obviously the next Fib target down is around 1100 which would be a disaster to an already battered market.
Looking at other symbols, it looks like market participants will try and keep ES above water for now. We will however remain very cautious as we have NO indication of any sort recovery just yet.
Weeky Outlook on ER2 14th to 18th July '08
Dominant TF: Daily, Weekly, with 60mins lagging somewhat behind
Swings: UP-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market Direction(daily): flat
Options (RUT): no change in outlook for August, i.e. condor outside the 625-750 range.
On ER2, last post was again correct, even if the day started lower. To be honest the jump to 1st Fib target would also suprise me if i hadn't had a short intraday chart open (as recommended also on Friday)
EURUSD: we'll keep an eye at EURUSD not breaking the current lows as this would bring further turmoil to the markets and obviously impact our outlook here.
60mins: congestion, erratic. Shorter time frame recommended.
Same advice as last Friday, i.e. not much to read from indicators at this time frame. This means that one shall either follow pure price patterns or switch to lower time frames for entry/exit points. Reaching 2nd Fib target level is quite possible.
Daily: congestion with upper bias at first.
MTFS lines are diverging indicating an attempt to break the fall. No recovery can succeed with a green line sloping down and crossover came too early. Having said that, ER2 could well reach the 60mins Fib target which is close to the MM pivot here. Conservative traders will have exited their shorts and won't go long just yet as there is still a lot of indecision here.
Weekly: a little bearish but no panic just yet
No change from last post. As mentioned previously, we are now seeing the development of a down Fib pattern aiming straight at MM support level (~625). Since the MTFS pattern is not overly bearish, the Fib pattern can still fail. We will therefore also look for a possible support level along the way i.e. somewhere between current stall level (656) and strong support level (625).
Friday, July 11, 2008
NOTICE
Today was the last day for my daily snapshots. I hope they proved valuable to you in your trading in the last 12 months or so. There is however always a realistic limit to what should be offered for free, particularly when it comes to market trading. Hence, from now on, only a weekly study on ER2 and ES will be posted on this public blog. A private blog (http://admarkan.blogspot.com) will now be the container for daily market outlooks and personalised market studies can be arranged on request.
Enjoy your holiday,
bv
Market Outlook ER2 (RUT) for Jul 11th '08
Dominant TF: Daily, Weekly, with 60mins lagging somewhat behind
Swings: UP-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN)
Market Direction(daily): short to flat
Position (60mins): flat
Options (RUT): 625 or lower for July puts (625 will not be hit).
Yesterday's post on SPY was quite clear about the fight we would have on 125. This tug of war may actually not be over quite yet.
On ER2, last post was also correct, with the recommendation to look for an exit point on the 60mins chart (a low of 650 was hit) and the fall is probably entering the congestion period as mentioned.
NB: This is the last *FREE* daily snapshot.
60mins: congestion with a very slight upper bias
This is not our dominant time frame by far, but significance levels are very high on 5 to 15mins time frames for those interested in intraday play.
Here we'll notice the down channel being broken then the upper boundary being tested again, so ER2 might try and go higher now, but MTFS and Entropy do not suggest any buying frenzy so a congestion is also possible.
Daily: bottom or temporary congestion only?
Last time, i said that it would take at the very least a few days until Entropy bottoms up and that the fall may slow down or even enter a congestion period near lows. Now that we are there, all we can say is that MTFS show an early line crossover indicating indecision around current levels. ER2 should see continuation of this congestion period until MTFS gives us a recovery pattern. This may take more up to a week.
Weekly: bearish but no panic just yet
No change from last post. As mentioned previously, we are now seeing the development of a down Fib pattern aiming straight at MM support level (~625). Since the MTFS pattern is not overly bearish, the Fib pattern can still fail. We will therefore also look for a possible support level along the way i.e. somewhere between current stall level (656) and strong support level (625).
Thursday, July 10, 2008
Market Snapshot for ER2 (RUT) - Jul 10th 2008
cf. SPY post below for guidance.
NB: This is the last *FREE* daily snapshot for ER2.
Market Outlook SPY for Jul 10th '08
Dominant TF: weekly, daily, with 60mins lagging behind
Swings: DN-DN-DN (from DN-DN-DN). 60mins Swing is close to toggling up.
Market Direction (daily): congestion to possibly lower still.
Position (60mins): short or flat
On NDX yesterday, i warned that there might be no follow up from the bounce the day before as we were already close to target and indicators did not look strong enough to carry prices higher. Worse still, NDX could now fall way lower...
Back to SPY now: on last post i mentioned a congestion to a possible short term bounce which has not materialised into a recovery. Like NDX and other symbols, SPY looks quite bearish...
Note on EURUSD: same fairly directionless [1.5625-1.57.47] trading range. Shorter intraday time frames are recommended.
60mins: another attack on 125...
Significance level is now quite low, so again one should switch to lower intraday time frame to play reaction on MM support level.
We are certainly in "danger zone" as 125 could break to go substantially lower!
Daily: same fighting over MM support level
As mentioned already, it was obvious the bounce would be short-lived, but the last bar is so bearish that we shall be careful at this level too.
One should not panic however as MTFS white line is rather showing possible congestion. The other MTFS lines are certainly also very oversold, so 125 could well be penetrated even deeply without breaking completely.
Weekly: will 125 hold...?
We've shown that bearish Fib pattern expansion for a while now so what next? A combination of a MM pivot and a Fib target generally provides enough support to enter a congestion period. Secondly, MTFS and Entropy are surprisingly not too bearish either. MTFS is still in "failed recovery mode" and Entropy is moderate in relative terms ((EntBin=-1). Yet, The Swing gradient or "real-time momentum" show a significant potential to take prices lower, possibly to the next Fib target level which is also a significant MM level, i.e. around 113.
For the time being, we'll assume 125 will hold even if momentarily penetrated, but we will also remain cautious and place our puts below the next possible targets for safety. We'll also keep an eye on AccDist or another other volume based indicator in the next few weeks (earnings season again).
