Weekly Report - Sep 21st to Sep 25th '09

While hesistant on 1062 which is a strong resistance on the 60mins chart, ES could push higher even to 1125 over the next couple of weeks. While residual momentum is still there, a retracement is clearly in the cards on the weekly chart but it is impossible to figure out when sellers will actually pull the trigger.
We'll therefore watch the behaviour on Monday on this 1062 level. Should sellers have a go, ES could shed 1.5% to 1050 but it should remain limited at first.

We however notice that TF is more prone to retrace and could take ES down with it. It currently suffers from the same short term hesitation with the same upward bias and the same need to retrace on the weekly chart.

EURUSD: could be range bound in the short term, but still bullish overall. We indeed saw 1.464 acting as a support now on the weekly chart. That level remains key to the continuation of the current rise. A moderate retracement is also necessary here even if it could take a while to exhaust the current buying pressure.

( Posted Sunday 7AM UK )

Market Update - Sep 18th '09

New contract and maybe more signs of hesitation around 1060. The bullish pressure however needs to first dissipate to eventually initiate some selling. Lower time frames will be necessary to pick a reversal point but one can already say that if prices stay below 1062, buyers will probably pull back and let retracement start. Should this happen today, we'll figure out a target on the weekly report.
TF does not provide us with additional information. While it hasn't hit its strong resistance level on 625, stall level (~618) could act the same way.

EURUSD: hesitant as well but could retrace in the short term to yesterday's lows or at least 1.468. Still very bullish overall on daily and weekly charts.


( posted 7 AM UK )

Market Update - Sep 17th '09

Late, shorter report today...

All markets are sitting on strong resistance levels. With triple witching coming, we may see increased volatility but no sign of retracement whatosoever in the short term. Shall we see yet another breakout?
Retracement has to come, more visible on the weekly chart, so it may take at least a few days to materialize.

Traveling right now but will try and update this report by noon Eastern

( posted 10 AM UK )

Market Update - Sep 16th '09

Interesting market action yesterday, with ES pushing higher as expected, and TF moving in concert, breaking 594 to now aim toward 610s. ES could stall on 1055 or maybe go hit its resistance on 1062.
Concerns on weaker underlying forces is more visible on the weekly chart, so, assuming no increased volatility on triple witching, this steady yet excessive bullishness could hold for a while.

EURUSD: The 1.464 level broke technically on intraday charts, but we are still in a resistance area for now. It is so bullish that once resistance has been tested for support, we could see it reaching 1.50 or maybe just above 1.51 over the next few weeks.

( posted 6 AM UK )

Market Update - Sep 15th '09

Previous reports pointed out the residual bullish momentum so one could say that markets behaved as expected.

While we believe there is still some upward potential maybe even to ~1060, we are now in target area, so we'll be watching for a potential pivot point, particularly with triple witching coming in a couple of days.

TF is also in resistance area around 594 but is pushing still. We could see some interesting action. A possible yet unlikely breakout could take prices up one price segment (~16 points) by the end of the week.

EURUSD: on our target and remarkably bullish still. Resistance should hold for now though and since there is no retracement potential in the short term, we could see a bit of fighting on these levels.

( posted 7 AM UK )

Weekly Report - Sep 14th to Sep 18th '09

ES is now showing early signs of exhaustion, but the market remains bullish nonetheless (cf. snapshot posted on the ATT blog). We know that we've been hovering in a resistance area for a while, and while there is still some potential for a higher target, a retracement will be necessary as underlying energy is weakening. Such profit taking could take place this week.

TF is obviously very much correlated, but is already weaker on pivot level (~592). It could retrace to the high 570s.

EURUSD was also inches away from our target (1.462) and strong resistance level around 1.464. Retracement to the 1.45 area is engaged but support could be found on a Fib level the short term. The weekly chart remains mildly bullish.

( posted 7:10 AM UK )

Market Update - Sep 11th '09

As mentioned in previous reports, the bullish bias is still there for now. Only longer time frames seem to indicate possible exhaustion in a few weeks. A retracement will be then necessary but we have ample time to review our scenario. In the short term we keep a target for ES in the mid to high 1040s.

TF needs to hit its resistance on 592 but could certainly go higher later on. Triple witching coming next week, so the market could pause first.

EURUSD: on its way to 1.464. Short term bullishness but some limited retracement is in the cards (1st Fib level), so we'll watch for a possible stall as well (weekly chart).

( posted 7:40 AM UK )

Market Update - Sep 10th '09

Scenarios always have to be refined as we go along, this is why i often propose to adjust positions.

Today, we see ES back to the top of its trading range around 1032 with a little more energy lately. If current highs are broken, the probability of it going higher still is strong particularly on intraday tick charts. Having said that, we have another set of resistance just below 1050 (half a price segment, Fib etc) and underlying force coming from longer term indicators remains weak. In other words, we have to remain careful of the market stalling at some point.

TF is also aiming to ~593 with the same possibility of stall.
Again we do have a reassuring longer term upward bias, but a retracement is possible along the way, hence we'll keep watching this market...

EURUSD: on stall level on 1.458 and probably aiming to its strong resistance level around 1.462 to 1.464. As mentioned in previous report, we have noticed a (spurrious) correlation with indices, and while the upward bias is certainly there, EURUSD is definetly entering overbought zone where a retracement would be healthy.

( posted 7:20 AM UK )

Market Update - Sep 9th '09

ES hovered around the mid 1020s as anticipated yesterday. Again the residual upward bias is there, but lower time frames point toward some retracement later on. The air hole effect can carry on for over a day. If retracement starts, we'll have a 1009 target. No change of scenario on longer time frames.

TF is also losing steam close to the 578 target (60min chart). There is no sign of retracement here though. Both indices may have to fight their respective resistance levels first to retrace (1032 for ES). However both are sitting on their stall level just below targets with little energy left.

EURUSD: still bullish. If you read earlier reports, you may have noticed a target close to Dec 08 highs (1.462 to be exact) if 1.44 was broken. EURUSD is overbought but could give it a go again within a week. It has however hit stall level already which is often good enough to take profits or tighten stops at least.

( posted 6:25 AM UK )

Market Update - Sep 8th '09

ES stalled in the low 1020s as expected but contains enough momentum to stop attempts to retrace. It should therefore keep hovering in the same price range. In the most optimistic scenario, it may try and reach range highs, but looks relatively unclear still at this time (~3AM Eastern).

TF could go a little higher (~575), where it could pause.
Both indices look fairly bullish but lack energy.


We note that EURUSD has reached a strong resistance around 1.44 where it should also pause. Like our indices (remarkably correlated lately), EURUSD has some residual upward momentum.

( posted 8:25 AM UK )

Weekly Report - Sep 7th to Sep 11th '09

ES proved to be a bit more bullish than anticipated on Friday. The first resistance indeed broke easily to see prices settle just below 1020.
At this point, it isn't clear how far ES can go now. There is some indication of stalling in the low to mid 1020s. However, this last test of 1000 bodes well for a higher target even if energy is lacking to support the current buying spree. We may therefore see a continuation of the same trading range on the daily chart with a slight upper bias in the long run.

TF is also looking bullish right now. We'll watch resistance around 570 and 575 as the underlying trend (like ES) is pretty weak still.

EURUSD: Current resistance in on current highs around 1.434. It should eventually go higher, but is definitely lacking stamina (like indices...)


( Posted 9 AM UK )

Market Update - Sep 4th '09

Support was found yesterday in the low 990s but 1000 is certainly still acting as a mild resistance. This is definitely more a time of hesitation that a real tug-of-war on a salient level.

ES could reach 1008 but is lacking both direction and energy, and this long weekend will probably not help as volumes should remain light until next week.

TF is also hesitant, and while it could reach 566 (Fib), signs of erosion to 544 are still there.

I understand this market update may be a little confusing for some, but short positions should see their stops tightened a bit above Fib levels for now until we get more clarity. Intraday positions should be monitored more agressively, or simply closed until next week when volume picks up again.

( posted 7 AM UK )